Skip to main content

Nintendo on track to miss two-year sales targets for Switch, say analysts

Platform holder's share price down 33% from January peak

Nintendo's share price continues to slide as the Switch looks likely to miss its two-year sales projections.

According to an analysis report from Bloomberg, the Switch is likely to fall short of Nintendo's 38 million sales target set for March by nearly three million units.

Nintendo enjoyed a resoundingly successful first year with the Switch, which became the fastest-selling Nintendo console of all time.

However, concerns that the platform holder would be unable to maintain such momentum after front-loading the console's launch with flagship titles may not have been unfounded.

Nintendo's share price has fallen 33% from roughly $435 to just under $300 since January, as it slides closer and closer to Switch pre-release levels.

Much like the Wii, Nintendo hoped that the Switch would be able to connect with consumers in the wider public, but products like Nintendo Labo have failed to deliver on that front.

Launched in April the Labo saw a brief rise in share price, preceding an accelerated decline.

Speaking with Bloomberg, William O'Neil & Co Inc. analyst Cornelio Ash said: "All great consoles need a great second year, and Nintendo hasn't delivered one for the Switch.

"Investors thought over five years they could sell maybe 90 million units. But after this year, that's looking pretty much impossible."

The strength of Nintendo has always come from its first party line-up, and the platform holder has announced a new Animal Crossing game, new Metroid, and a new core Pokémon RPG.

Additionally, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate has become the best pre-selling game on Switch.

However, none of these titles are likely to appeal to the wider non-gaming audience that Nintendo needs to capture in order to replicate the long-term success of the Wii.

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter suggested that a 33% price cut would be necessary to spur sales growth.

"I don't see sales growing unless the price is reduced to below $200," he said.

Nintendo has also failed to improve the situation following mixed results from its mobile efforts, with Super Mario Run failing to meet expectations, and Miitomo shutting down after two years.

The publisher 's inexperience with the platform shines through in its awkward attempts to wrestle success from the most competitive market in the industry.

Last year's Animal Crossing Pocket Camp has generated only $50 million lifetime revenue, compared to Fire Emblem Heroes which pulled in $63 million over July and August alone.

Meanwhile, new IP Dragalia Lost was simultaneously the lowest grossing launch Nintendo has ever seen on mobile, while also having the highest spend per install.

Read this next

Ivy Taylor avatar
Ivy Taylor: Ivy joined in 2017 having previously worked as a regional journalist, and a political campaigns manager before that. They are also one of the UK's foremost Sonic the Hedgehog apologists.
Related topics