Analyst predicts 3 million shipments for Kinect

First retail estimate also predicts hardware bundle announcement

Analyst Colin Sebastian of research firm Lazard Capital Markets has predicted that approximately 3 million units of Microsoft's Kinect camera-based control system will be shipped worldwide in this calendar year.

Unveiled at last year's E3 as Project Natal, Kinect was given its final retail name at this year's trade show, and became the focus of Microsoft's pre-E3 media briefing. Although confirmed to be launching in November, pricing for the unit has still yet to be announced.

Current rumours suggest a price announcement at Gamescom of around $190.

Media reaction to the device (and in particular its initial line-up of games) has been mixed, but in comments made to website Industry Gamers Sebastian stated: "We expect roughly 3 million units of Kinect to ship worldwide in calendar year 2010, with Microsoft selling Kinect on its own or as part of a hardware bundle."

A new slimline version of the Xbox 360 console was also unveiled at Microsoft's briefing, and is widely expected to be made available as part of a new hardware bundle with Kinect.

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Latest comments (7)

robert troughton Managing Director, Coconut Lizard7 years ago
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Private Industry 7 years ago
It`s getting more expensive with each new rumor.

Shipping as in shipping only to retail or actual selling 3 million units? I see selling 3 million rather optimistic, with the usual strong Christmas line up that we can expect you can most likely rule out that core gamers will bu a kintect this year.
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Kingman Cheng Illustrator and Animator 7 years ago
Why is it that every rumour seems to price up the Kinect?

In any case I don't think I'm going to go with Kinect anyway.
But if it will have a price tag like that it's not going to convince me in future otherwise.
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James Finlan Studying Information Systems, University of Manchester7 years ago
Odd, the rumours I am hearing from friends in the retail channel are roughly a $129, 99 and 99e pricepoint. I cannot see that $190 price being anywhere close unless it is some kind of bundle with a couple of games minimum.
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Johan Ekblom7 years ago
$190 for an Eye Toy, never in my life.
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John Bye Lead Designer, Future Games of London7 years ago
*Shipping* 3 million units by the end of the year may be feasible, but I'd be surprised if they *sell through* anywhere near that many. By comparison, that's about the same as the Wii managed to sell from a similar launch window, and a third of those were in Japan where Microsoft has virtually no market share.
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chuck Junglas Review Writer 7 years ago
Don't think it's going to sell anywhere near 3 Million??? I wouldn't say that, not when it's going to be released right at the heart of the biggest shopping months of the year.

It will be a very hot item this year such as the Wii has been. Everyone said the Wii would fail, but has had and maintained an extremely high sell through rate. I see the Kinect doing something similar at least at it's initial launch window months.

I would say it'll be about 150.00 at launch or way is it going to be $200 when retail giants Gamestop and Amazon have priced it at $150.

I would also like to point out that since it has become available for pre-order on Amazon it has been the number 2 best selling item in the videogames department. While the Playstation move is resting at #24... Don't under estimate the sell through power of new technology... People did that with the Wii and were proved wrong.

Edited 2 times. Last edit by chuck Junglas on 18th June 2010 2:04pm

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