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Janco: 16m-selling GTA 5 in fiscal 2012

Analyst sees good times ahead for Take-Two, plus 4m Bioshock Infinite sales

Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey is confident about Take Two's future, claiming that a safe 2011 will be followed by an "enormous earnings event."

Hickey raised his stock recommendations for the company, arguing that 2012 would be a bumper year. It would, he claimed, see the release of Grand Theft Auto V - a game Hickey predicted would bring in 16 million sales and $750 million revenue.

He prescribed these big numbers to a rise in the console install base. "The PS3 / 360 US installed base was 14 million in April '08 when GTA IV was released," Hickey reasoned.

"By the end of calendar year '10, we are modelling for 41 million U.S. units, up 185 percent; providing a significantly larger addressable market."

Janco also anticipated Bioshock Infinite as being a major driver for the publisher's fortunes, estimating $182 million in sales off the back of four million units shifted.

He was unconcerned about the perceived decline of retail games, arguing that " core gamer hardware (PS3 / 360) sales trends remain compelling, a building platform continuum for future sales growth."

Hickey expected the publisher to exceed Q4 forecasts, and felt 2011 would see solid sales from Max Payne 3 and L.A. Noire.

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Alec Meer

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A 10-year veteran of scribbling about video games, Alec primarily writes for Rock, Paper, Shotgun, but given any opportunity he will escape his keyboard and mouse ghetto to write about any and all formats.

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