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L.A. Noire expected to sell 4m units

Modest year ahead following success of Red Dead, says Creutz

Rockstar and Take-Two's L.A. Noire - released this week - is expected to sell around 4 million units for the company in the 2012 financial year.

That's the estimate of analyst firm Cowen & Company, which expects the game to move only half the 8 million units Red Dead Redemption sold during the last financial year, which Take-Two reports on early next week.

As a result of this and weaker sales of NBA 2K12, it is lowering its estimates per share to $1.00 from the consensus of $1.20 for the 2012 year.

"We do not view the rest of the company's line-up as likely to drive significant profitability, and are of the view that GTA V is not likely to ship until FY13," wrote analyst Doug Creutz.

"We believe initial management guidance for FY12 is likely to be even more conservative than our below-street estimate due to the possibility of an NBA lockout/strike which could impact sales of NBA 2K12," he added.

According to Creutz, upcoming titles XCOM, Duke Nukem Forever, Spec Ops: The Line and The Darkness II "are all derived from significantly aged franchises, and hence our expectations for the titles are modest."

"We also note that product announcements are no guarantee of actual (timely) delivery based on the company's spotty history of hitting ship dates," he added. "We continue to believe that GTA V, as well as Max Payne 3 and/or Agent, are likely to ship during FY13 at the earliest."

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Matt Martin avatar

Matt Martin

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Matt Martin joined GamesIndustry in 2006 and was made editor of the site in 2008. With over ten years experience in journalism, he has written for multiple trade, consumer, contract and business-to-business publications in the games, retail and technology sectors.

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