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Analyst: PS3 to outsell 360 and Wii by cycle end

SACHD predicts 9% fall for worldwide home consoles in 2010 and peak in 2011

The PlayStation 3 will outsell its rivals over its lifetime, becoming the best selling home console of the current generation - according to a new report by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices (SACHD) service.

The prediction is based on the PS3 remaining a commercial platform for five years after the Wii has been replaced. Report author David Mercer predicts a 127 million unit lifetime title for the PS3, compared to 103 million for the Wii.

The global totals for the three consoles currently stand at approximately 68 million for the Wii, 38 million for the 360 and 32.5 million for the PS3.

The report also predicts that worldwide home console sales will drop by 9 per cent in 2010, to a total of 47.5 million; 17.5 million for the Wii, 14.0 million for the PS3, 10.5 million for the 360 and 5.5 for the PlayStation 2.

Writing on his blog, Mercer estimated that the Wii installed userbase will hit 76 million by the end of 2010. "But the signs are that the Wii has peaked in terms of console sales, and its installed base will begin to decline after 2011", he commented.

"These estimates are derived from our core forecast scenario, but we have developed various scenarios for each platform. Uncertainties clearly surround each of the major platforms, particularly relating to the new services and upgrades planned by Sony and Microsoft", added Mercer.

"Natal on the Xbox could be more beneficial to 360 sales than expected, and Sony’s own motion controller, together with its plans to upgrade all PS3s to 3D capability, also represent potential for upside to our core forecasts."

The full report can be purchased at the company's website.

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