Destiny could sell 10-15 million - Analyst

Preorder tracking points to Bungie's new IP as best-selling game of 2014 while Battlefield: Hardline falls far short of predecessors

Destiny may be destined to be the best-selling game of 2014. That's according to Cowen Research analyst Doug Creutz and his assessment of post-E3 preorder tracking on a number of the most anticipated games in the industry, as reported by VentureBeat.

According to Creutz, Destiny is shaping up to sell between 10 million and 15 million copies at retail after its September 9 launch, and is tracking better than any game has in the past four years. Cowen has been conducting this research for the last six years, basing his findings on Amazon best-seller charts combined with NPD physical sales data.

It could be a banner year for Activision, as the Destiny publisher also has Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare in the fourth spot on Creutz's preorder tracking list. Ubisoft is also well-poised for the holidays, with Assassin's Creed: Unity in third place and Far Cry 4 in fifth place on the rankings. Microsoft's first-person shooter compilation Halo: The Master Chief Collection, was second.

One publisher that might not enjoy much holiday cheer is Electronic Arts. Creutz said Dragon Age: Inquisition was tracking "well but not wildly well," estimating 3 million to 4 million units sold for the BioWare RPG and ranking it seventh on his chart. However, that was the best performance for an EA title, with only two more offerings in the top 20. Battlefield: Hardline is tracking well short of Battlefield 3 or 4, and more in line with 2012's lackluster Medal of Honor: Warfighter. The only other EA title ranked was the PS3 and PS4 version of Plants vs. Zombies: Garden Warfare, which was ranked 18th, nestled between The Crew (which Creutz said was likely "dead on arrival") and Driveclub.

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Latest comments (5)

Paul Jace Merchandiser 7 years ago
While I think 10-15 million units across 4 platforms is certainly possible I'm not sure if the first game in the series will hit that. Destiny still has some buzz but lately it seems that half of that buzz has been negative. I'm still taking a wait and see approach so I won't be picking it up at launch. However, it's an fps so I have a civic duty to atleast check it out.
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Greg Wilcox Creator, Destroy All Fanboys! 7 years ago
I still say no offline mode will hurt the game and keep the curious away who'd buy in it they could play offline, but we'll see. That number seems high, but again, we'll see. I think it will do really well out of the gate but my trips to a few game shops to ask around reveal clerks saying people aren't exactly knocking the doors down to reserve this like they do some other franchise shooters and action games.

Titanfall impressed me only up to the point when I got tired of the novelty elements and then I never touched it again. Granted, I had to play it at a friend's place on his account, but these sorts of shooters need more to do than just run around and shoot each other in the face and only online with other people. If there's lore, I want to discover it solo without the tether. Sort of like how Journey made for a fine experience if you just forgot racing to the ending and just poked around the environment...
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Steve Wetz Reviewer/Assistant Editor, Gamer's Glance7 years ago
None of this news is particularly exciting. I think 10-15 mil is wildly optimistic, but could be a realistic goal if they are talking lifetime as opposed to the first six months. As for Battlefield Hardline not predicted as well as EA might thought, that's what you get for making a mod for Battlefield 4 (after denying mod support to Battlefield 4, much to the hardcore crowd's chagrin) and then pitching it as a whole new game. That game feels like a reskin of Battlefield 4, not a new IP entirely. The singleplayer campaign might be different, but the people who buy a Battlefield game for the singleplayer campaign (now that Bad Company has gone MIA) is pretty slim.
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Paul Jace Merchandiser 7 years ago
Titanfall impressed me only up to the point when I got tired of the novelty elements and then I never touched it again. Granted, I had to play it at a friend's place on his account, but these sorts of shooters need more to do than just run around and shoot each other in the face and only online with other people
But thats exactly what this game was made for--an online-only multiplayer shooter with no campaign. It obviously wasn't made for you but for people who are shooter fans that don't play the campaign. I don't have a link but apparently a large majority of Call of Duty players buy the game and head straight online, never touching the campaign at all. It's the samething for when Counterstrike ruled PC gaming, it was designed for the online-only multiplayer audience.

As a fan of fps games I actually like single player campaigns and will finish all of them(even the bad ones like Battlefield 3) at some point in addition to playing online. But Respawn had a very clear vision of what they wanted to do with this first entry. They also probably didn't have enough resources or time to make a proper single player campaign considering how new the studio still is. The game is averaging pretty well too(86 on metacritic). Now imagine how much lower the rating would be if they added a subpar half-ass single player campaign just to appease people like you. They made the right decision to leave it out of this entry and the game is awesome just the way it is.

As long as you know exactly what you are getting(and they made it very clear when they announced it plus it also states right on the case that it's online-only) theres not much reason to complain. After all, if it's not for you then obviously you don't have to play it. I'm not even sure about their sales figures but yes it could have sold more if it had an offline mode. However, it also would have sold better had Microsoft not messed up their original Xbox One messaging in the beginning. It will be really interetsing to see rather they add an offline single player campaign to the sequel.
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Well, problem is quite a few good games coming out over the next year, I havent pre-ordered my copy of Hardline yet either but I plan to, so pre-order's are'nt the whole story after-all, i pre-ordered destiny back in ps4 release.
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