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Analyst: Wii U won't drive publisher shares

Analyst: Wii U won't drive publisher shares

Thu 22 Mar 2012 11:50am GMT / 7:50am EDT / 4:50am PDT
Hardware

Also predicts lower price point for next Xbox console

Analyst Cowen and Company has shed doubt on the ability of Nintendo's next console, the Wii U, to significantly impact publisher shares.

"We note that while the WiiU will launch later this year, we do not view it as a likely driver of third party publisher shares given their historically low exposure to Nintendo platforms," said the report authored by Doug Creutz.

This is in contrast to the effect of new consoles from other hardware manufacturers like Microsoft.

"Although not yet confirmed by Microsoft, we believe the next generation Xbox console could launch in the fall of 2013. In past console cycles, the video game publisher stocks outperformed the S&P 500 for the 12 months leading up to the key console launch of that generation by an average of plus 57 per cent."

The report also predicts a change in strategy from Microsoft, but rules out a digital only console. Creutz believes the next Xbox will instead be cheaper for consumers, to stimulate interest and increase early adoption.

8 Comments

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,271 2,440 1.1
They fail to grasp that the architectural differences between the Wii and the HD consoles made it difficult for 3rd parties to support the Wii early on which prevented any chance for a strong 3rd party consumer base to grow.

Since that isn't a problem on Wii U and most of the titles announced so far are actually big name 3rd party titles, I think it stands a much greater chance of gaining more 3rd party market share than the Wii did. Will it equalize with the Sony and MS consoles? Of course not but it will almost certainly exceed the share obtained by the Wii.

Posted:2 years ago

#1

Rogier Voet Editor / Content Manager

71 31 0.4
I have no confidence in the wii u the system arrives to late to the party why would consumers pay 300+ euro's for a system which plays games you can play on ps3 or xbox 360 which are cheaper just as powerfull and have good online functions Nintendo has little to no online vision so it's to expensive for the casual crowd and not interessting enough for the hardcore crowd

Posted:2 years ago

#2

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,271 2,440 1.1
Rogier, do you have inside knowledge on the power, online infrastructure and game content that the rest of the media doesn't know about?

Posted:2 years ago

#3

Patrick Frost QA Project Monitor

400 196 0.5
I think he traded it for his full stops Jim!

Posted:2 years ago

#4

Colin Payne game designer; artist

22 24 1.1
I have every confidence in the Wii U. The system will be arriving first to the party. Why wouldn't consumers pay 300+ euro's for a system which plays games you will never be able to play on ps3 or xbox 360, which are older and likely substantially less powerful? While they both have better online functions than Nintendo's current system, Nintendo has shown recently that it is vigorously pursuing a new online vision. So it's a wonderful upgrade for the casual crowd and an exciting prospect, especially considering Nintendo's first party titles, for the hardcore crowd.

Posted:2 years ago

#5

Private Industry

1,176 182 0.2
There is no evidence of any price yet so who knows if it`s 300+ or not.

I have to agree with Jim, the Wii SD versus the PS3 and 360 HD doesn`t make it easy at all to port your game over if you have to adept a game that is designed for a rather powerfull consoles and then port ot over to something that is outperformed in every aspect by a 2-3 year old smartphone and neither does the controller that features 1 analoge stick less and a few buttons less compared to the other controllers. I didn`t see the Wii U controller yet except from the pictures but it has at least two sticks, the normal amount of face buttons and 2 shoulder buttons and apperently 2 triggers and that combined with HD graphics make it a lot easier and it should be cheap to just port your HD games to one console more.

The online functions I have to admit I don`t trust them, the Wii is horrible in that regard and while 3DS did improve in that aspect Nintendo still didn`t get rid of that horrible friend code system that`s just painful to use and lacks a lot compared to the direct competition in the Online segment that`s the Vita. So let`s see how online turns out.

I know it`s a pain for consumers with the firmware updates, but I hope Nintendo has a good support and focus on firmware updates because both MS and Sony showed what great improvements can be done with a regular firmware support. If I compare my launch PS3 with my PS3 now it`s basically a new console with all the features and improvements that have been added via firmware updates. I would like to say the same thing about 360 but that changed into the add heavy casual kinect movie watcher experience since the last update.

Posted:2 years ago

#6

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,271 2,440 1.1
Werner, they already announced they will use a universal user account system similar to Xbox Live for Wii U instead of game based friend codes like Wii or console based codes like 3DS.

And we don't know the extent of it yet but they are also partnering with external companies to help provide the service. Whether that means stuff like EA Origin, Valve's Steam, Gaikai or simply that they'll again utilize Gamespy from the network backbone, we'll have to wait until E3 for the answers. I also think the fact that Ubisoft has enough confidence int he Wii U's online infrastructure plans to put Ghost Recon Online on the PC and Wii U and not the other consoles says something.

Either way, all signs indicate they are making a far better service for Wii U than Wii and 3DS.

As for firmware updates, the 3DS has already proven they are willing to make major firmware updates. But I have a feeling that new 400,000 sq foot R&D facility they are building will house a more dedicated firmware team.

Posted:2 years ago

#7

Rodney Smith Developer

81 40 0.5
Nintendo have my money

Posted:2 years ago

#8

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