Analyst: Wii U won't drive publisher shares
Also predicts lower price point for next Xbox console
Analyst Cowen and Company has shed doubt on the ability of Nintendo's next console, the Wii U, to significantly impact publisher shares.
"We note that while the WiiU will launch later this year, we do not view it as a likely driver of third party publisher shares given their historically low exposure to Nintendo platforms," said the report authored by Doug Creutz.
This is in contrast to the effect of new consoles from other hardware manufacturers like Microsoft.
"Although not yet confirmed by Microsoft, we believe the next generation Xbox console could launch in the fall of 2013. In past console cycles, the video game publisher stocks outperformed the S&P 500 for the 12 months leading up to the key console launch of that generation by an average of plus 57 per cent."
The report also predicts a change in strategy from Microsoft, but rules out a digital only console. Creutz believes the next Xbox will instead be cheaper for consumers, to stimulate interest and increase early adoption.
They fail to grasp that the architectural differences between the Wii and the HD consoles made it difficult for 3rd parties to support the Wii early on which prevented any chance for a strong 3rd party consumer base to grow.
Since that isn't a problem on Wii U and most of the titles announced so far are actually big name 3rd party titles, I think it stands a much greater chance of gaining more 3rd party market share than the Wii did. Will it equalize with the Sony and MS consoles? Of course not but it will almost certainly exceed the share obtained by the Wii.
Posted:A year ago