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Modern Warfare, Battlefield to generate $1.4 billion in Q4

Wedbush estimates two franchises will account for 15 per cent of packaged sales

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter estimates that Modern Warfare 3 and Battlefield 3 will generate more than $1.4 billion by the end of the year.

Speaking to Forbes, Pachter claimed that EA and Activision's rival franchises will account for 15 per cent of all revenue in the fourth quarter.

Modern Warfare 3 will be responsible for the majority of that amount, selling 16 million units worldwide versus Battlefield's 8 million. That trend will continue in 2012, when Pachter expects Modern Warfare to sell an additional 8 million units versus Battlefield's 2 million.

"I'd guess that around half of the console copies of Battlefield 3 will be bought by people who also buy Modern Warfare 3, so around 2 to 3 million will buy both," Pachter added. "I don't see much cannibalisation of the titles."

The competition between Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3 led to public recriminations between EA and Activision, with the latter accusing the former of "mud-slinging tactics."

Battlefield 3 launches in the US tomorrow, with the European launch to follow on Friday. Modern Warfare 3 will be released worldwide on November 8.

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Latest comments (7)

Graham Simpson Tea boy, Collins Stewart5 years ago
No way will EA sell 8 millions units in the holiday quarter. That's delusional.
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It seems like only yesterday that ET cassettes were being buried in a landfill. Look at us now.
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I'm thinking Battlefield 3 will sell similarly to Black Ops' launch, and reach 8mil by the end of the holiday season. I'm with Pachman on this. Though I think 16 million copies of MW3 is a bit of a stretch...
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Show all comments (7)
Kiran Earwaker Games Journalist 5 years ago
Given that both have very similar branding and are launching within a fortnight of each other, I would've thought that 'cannibalisation' was an inevitability. Also not convinced that 2.5 is half of 10.
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Andrew Goodchild Studying development, Train2Game5 years ago
@kiran. He said half the console copies, whereas the 10 million he was guessing included PC.

My personal guess is they will both sell very well. It's not as specific as his guess, but more likely to be accurate and not make me look like a tit.
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Graham Simpson Tea boy, Collins Stewart5 years ago
Last year everyone on this site was saying Black Ops would not sell as much as MW2 (except for me).. Well guess what... MW3 is going to sell more than Black Ops and some. You heard it here first.
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Graham Simpson Tea boy, Collins Stewart5 years ago
Incidently Pachter was a nay sayer and didn't expect Black Ops to sell as well as MW2 so you might want to consider that when you read his estimates for MW3.
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