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Prototype 2 could see under 500k sales, says analyst

Cowen and Company believes Activision's Prototype 2 will "struggle" to hit 500k in year one

Activision Blizzard's seen some great success with Call of Duty and Skylanders, but another triple-A franchise in the company's portfolio may fail to meet expectations, suggests Cowen and Company. The upcoming Prototype 2 might only be able to barely hit 500,000 units sold in its first year, according to analyst Doug Creutz, who sees the game hitting a "soft performance."

This new sales projection comes from a few items, namely sales of the previous title and pre-order indicators from Amazon and other retailers. Creutz notes that the game has not breached the top 100 selling list for either the PS3 or Xbox 360 charts.

"We had been modeling the title to slightly exceed the 900,000 U.S. units the original title sold through during the year after its June 2009 launch," he explained. "We now believe Prototype 2 could struggle to reach 500,000 first-year US units."

This does not bode well for Activision, as Creutz has also downgraded his estimate for the end of fiscal 2012. Creutz now forecasts that Activision should see a $1.01 earnings per share, down from $1.05.

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Latest comments (8)

Morville O'Driscoll Blogger & Critic 4 years ago
"500,000 first-year US units"

But as long as they don't take a huge hit financially due to dev costs, it could be a good slow-burning hit. Nice long-tail, as long as there's good critical success and word-of-mouth.

Because the games industry isn't about immediate success, right?
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Private Industry 4 years ago
Actually it`s in the Amazon top 100 as well as in the Gamestop top 15 for both 360 and PS3.
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Luke Salvoni Senior iOS Developer 4 years ago
Who cares what one analyst says, really? Weather forecasters still get it wrong, and they've been doing that awhile...
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Show all comments (8)
Greg Wilcox Creator, Destroy All Fanboys! 4 years ago
@Morville: is there such a thing as a "slow burning" hit in the age of Metacritic dooming games based on aggregated scores taken over the first week of sales?

While I love the idea of any game taking time to rack up nice sales (Nintendo gets a lot of mileage this way from certain franchises), it's the analysts who never seem to get that some games NEED room to breathe and find an audience rather than midnight launch themselves to the moon and stay there for months.

And yeah, analysts are like weather forecasters, but as far as I can tell no one calls them out in public when they screw up their doom-saying game predictions like a TV weatherman when it rains on someone's beach vacation...
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Morville O'Driscoll Blogger & Critic 4 years ago
@ Greg

Mmmm... I'm sure there are some slow-burners on console. I can think of a couple of PC games straight off, but no console. :/

My comment was half-sarcasm, half-serious - I do agree that there's a lot of games that need time to find their audience, and hook others in when the price inevitably drops. But the market seems more and more geared towards Day One purchases, which isn't a good thing in my opnion.

And, yes... I'm still really wanting an analyst job. How much do they earn for these guesses, rumour-mongering, and counting-of-corpses-before-the-battle? :p
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Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.4 years ago
Morville, they pull in over 6 figures which is a better pay per accuracy rate than Shaquille O'Neil at the free throw line.
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Morville O'Driscoll Blogger & Critic 4 years ago
Jeez. I'm definitely aiming for the wrong end of the industry with journalism, then.
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Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.4 years ago
You and me both.

I've actually inquired about analyst positions at several firms but they all want plenty of secondary education to 'justify' the income regardless of the accuracy of your work.
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