Analyst cold on Red Faction success

Immediate price cut and competition from Prototype will impact sales, says Creutz

THQ's latest action title, Red Faction: Guerilla, is likely to face stiff competition from Activison's Prototype, with immediate price cuts on the title also an indication of poor sales.

That's according to Cowen's Doug Creutz, who has lowered full year sales estimates for the title from 670,000 units to 500,000.

"Although the 360 SKU of Red Faction: Guerilla remains in the top 10 sellers at both and, we note that at Amazon the title is already garnering a USD 7.50 discount," wrote Creutz in his latest note to investors.

"The PS3 SKU has fallen off the map at both sites. Activision Blizzard’s recent release Prototype is tracking far better on both the 360 and PS3, and we believe that title could be impacting Red Faction sales."

Red Faction Guerilla entered the UK charts at number three this week, and follows impressive sales of the publishers UFC 2009 Undisputed title in the US and the UK.

However, Creutz doesn't see any more strong releases from the publisher until 2010 and regardless of UFC success has left its rating of THQ shares as 'neutral'.

"With UFC’s successful debut in the rearview mirror, and Red Faction apparently not gaining traction, THQ’s next important release will be Darksiders in January 2010, for which we continue to have cautious expectations. THQ has a very light holiday release slate, with no major releases aside from its annual WWE title," he added.

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