PS4: What Sony needs to win next-gen
Columnist Chris Morris looks at opportunities and potential pitfalls for Sony in the upcoming console battle
In just under two weeks, we'll know a lot more about the PlayStation 4 than we do right now- well, in theory.
The truth is: The leaks about the PS4 have been coming fast and furious lately. And people with knowledge of the system (but who are still abiding by the NDA) indicate that there's a lot of accuracy in the recent reports. For the sake of argument, let's assume for the moment that the whispers are right. Given what we think we know, what things about the PS4 can put it in a leadership position in the next generation - and what things could turn it into the next Vita?
First, a preemptive note. It's looking highly unlikely at this point that either the PS4 or the Next Xbox will be backwards compatible. There are fundamental hardware shifts that are expected to take place that will make it very difficult for either system to achieve that goal.
That's certain to cause some wailing and gnashing of teeth initially, but it's ultimately a non-issue. Sony and Microsoft smartly assume that the early adopters of either machine will already own the existing console. And while it's a pain in the neck to leave both systems hooked up to a TV, it's one most gamers will endure with a little grumbling.
So, while there are certain to be some parties that argue backwards compatibility could put the PS4 or any system in a leadership position, that's wishful thinking.
That said, there are a few things that could help - or hurt - Sony.
What would help...
Emphasize free - The gaming industry has changed a lot this generation. Core and casual gamers alike have found mobile games that capture their attentions. And they've learned that a good gaming experience doesn't have to cost $60 or more.
"We've seen too many DRM horror stories in the past to take any comfort in any assurances that it's better this time"
Expecting publishers - especially third-party publishers - to retreat from that price point is a fool's dream, though. But Sony has a long history of not charging for online play - and many of the extras that go with its online service.
That's a huge advantage if the company spins it right. Since non-gaming elements of modern consoles are just as important as the gaming elements, Sony could win over fence sitters by offering more free non-gaming content options. What the company has to do first, though, is dramatically improve its user interface. Today, at least, Microsoft has a big advantage in that department.
Ride the social wave - Reports that the PS4 could allow users to share gameplay footage online through a "Share" button were an interesting revelation for the system. And embracing that social aspect of gaming could be a wise move on Sony's part.
TwitchTV currently reaches more than 15 million viewers per month and has seen its month-over-month numbers climb steadily. eSports are also finally starting to break through in the U.S., so allowing gamers to show off their unbelievable kills or funny in-game bugs could make the PS4 a go-to system for people who like to boast about their gaming skills with more than achievement points.
Lead in free-to-play - There's little argument in the game publishing world that free-to-play is headed to America in a big way in the coming years. Microsoft has done some experimenting with the format on the Xbox 360, but Sony has an in-house expert in the field.
Sony Online Entertainment has been the US industry leader in the free-to-play movement - and by leaning on the knowledge John Smedley and team have accumulated, Sony could be in a powerful position with the PS4. It's a risky move for a console company to embrace free-to-play, due to the razor and razor blades model consoles typically follow, but if done right, it could be a paradigm shift that would help the company open up new areas of profitability - and regain a lead in the industry.
What might hurt...
That controller - Reports that Sony has redesigned the controller to include a touchpad made me worry a bit when I first read them. It seems reactionary to the smartphone/tablet industry - and it's a move that hasn't helped the Vita gain any sort of market share. And attempts to change the DualShock at the start of this generation were disastrous.
Whether the touch pad will be incorporated into gaming - particularly AAA gaming - is still unknown. And we may not know if it will be until E3. But to date, console gamers have shown little interest in fusing touchscreens into their existing control structure - and there doesn't seem to be any reason to think they'll reverse their position on that in the near term.

A mockup of the new controller
Overly restrictive DRM - While those reports that the PS4 will not run used games are almost certainly hogwash, the little we've heard about the digital rights management elements of the PS4 is disturbing.
There's nothing wrong, in theory, with a console that's always connected online. But the minute there's an outage and someone wants to play a game to kill time - only to find they can't - there's going to be outrage. And we've seen too many DRM horror stories in the past to take any comfort in any assurances that it's better this time.
The price tag - You might note that although we've seen plenty of chatter about the rumored specs of the PS4, one area no one has discussed is what it will cost. Again, we likely won't learn this at the unveiling later this month, but let's hope Sony learned its lesson from the PS3.
Should the PS4 carry too hefty a price tag at launch, that alone could be enough for some fence-sitters to give up on Sony, convinced that the company is only interested in its bottom line.
And as a bonus - you might see some interesting gameplay come out of it.
Free to play is a mixed bag I think. The FTP games need to be there, but they need to push their full price games hard, as that's where they make most of their money, at least for now.
I don't think they would bet the farm on free to play when nobody yet has proved it works on consoles, and especially for the early adopter market which are more core gamers than casual (sorry, I hate using those terms, but it seems to fit here!)
I think the price point is the key. Sony normally release at a high price point; the PS3 and Vita being prime examples. They also serve as examples of how day 1 uptakes can be disappointing.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Graeme Quantrill on 6th February 2013 4:35pm
For starters, there's a vast number of games now available for PS3 and 360, both on disc and digitally. Failing to make that back catalogue available on new consoles would mean publishers and platform holders missing out on a potentially lucrative source of easy revenue. Just look at all the PS1 and PS2 games available on PSN, or the success of Nintendo's Virtual Console service, for example. An easy way to repackage your old games in digital form for a new platform would be good business for the industry, as well as giving players access to games they might have missed out on first time around, at a lower, impulse buy price point.
Also, as a consumer, I've spent a lot of money on both boxed and digital content for my PS3, not to mention all the free games I've got from PlayStation Plus. I haven't even got around to playing a lot of them yet. But, like most people I suspect, I don't have space to keep lots of consoles beneath my TV. If I buy a PS4, my PS3 is going to end up in the loft or on eBay sooner or later. I'd really like a way to still be able to access my PS3 content on a PS4 when this happens. Not letting me do that discourages me from buying a PS4, particularly early on. Whereas I'm more likely to buy a Vita because I already have a collection of PSP games I bought digitally which I can migrate across to it.
People have got used to carrying their content from device to device, generation to generation, whether its apps and entertainment on iOS and Android, upscaling your DVDs in a Blu-Ray player, the PS2, Xbox 360, Wii and Wii U all allowing back compatibility with game discs from the previous generation, or the PS3 with its vast catalogue of PS1 and PS2 content available for a few dollars a pop. Not allowing back compatibility in the next generation of consoles might turn out to be even more of an annoyance for players today than when the PS3 gave up on back compatibility with the PS2 several years ago.
And like I said, it also stops the games industry from continuing to generate what at this stage is pretty much free money from its console back catalogue. This is something the movie industry has become expert at since the arrival of VHS, but which seems to have largely eluded the games industry for some reason.
It all about money and their inablity to get with the times. Movie compaines still have not got it.
I'm not sure that the conference in a couple of months will give away everything. I think it could be a partial reveal and a tease of a tease to ask consumers to hold back from buying next Xbox if PS4 is later (which I'm sure it will be, maybe early 2014). A little more at E3 then final specs, prices and dates in the fall.
I am taking a wait and see on the units but so far these rumors have me more concerned than excited for the next generation, and from all the comments and forums I have been reading, I am not the only one.
PS controllers are far from ideal so let’s hope they've done more than add a touchpad, which, at this point in time I don't really see the need for, but I hope I’m pleasantly surprised..
Backward compatibility for both new consoles is a must in my view.. Not too keen on digital, as like a lot of people I have several X360 & PS3 consoles, and currently I can put any game disc I own for each platform into any of my consoles, if it changed to all digital we would more than likely have to buy a copy of each game for each console owned..
I am looking forward to the launch of both the PS4 & new Xbox..
- no used games
- requires always-on internet
- ships with Kinect
Are they trying everything possible to NOT get a sale?
As for backwards compat, I think its essential for (at least) MS to support it. Think about Xbox Live - how much content have people got on that puchased? Imagine losing access to every "application" that was bought? I can't see MS segmenting the service into 360/720 sections. And with the API-heavy design of the 360, there isn't much reason why backwards compat shouldn't work.
Find out soon enough...
Granted, if they surprise me with The Last Guardian as a launch title, I may change my mind, but it'll take a lot of elbow twisting (especially if games get stuck with less than precise touchpad controls as standard issue - yuk)...
Oh well, let the waiting commence...
Sony and Microsoft will lose entire sections of North America where internet connections are awful and people just want to game. Mark my words - there goes Middle America and plenty of parts of this country with shitty or zero broadband...
At least Nintendo knows this and is keeping that flame alive. They're not perfect, but they sure know their user base a lot more, hang the skeptics, analysts and other smug console fanboys who think they're "behind" because they're keeping that segment happy.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Greg Wilcox on 7th February 2013 12:09am
These "incontinent", supposedly "true Next gen" consoles are getting ridiculous. You could almost tell that those leaks were intentional since that is how they test the waters and see people's reactions to their half-baked plans. So it seems it's only Nintendo who has the guts to make a firm decision regarding used games. They understand the gaming culture and the need to own physical copies and complete a collection either by buying new or pre-owned ones.
I don't see them ever succeeding without some sort of BC out of the gate. BC makes the transition to the new console a lot less painful. A lot of gamers will sell their old consoles to buy new ones. Obviously games will tickle down after launch and what else will they play to tide themselves during these dry spells in between game releases?
Also, don't forget that the specs that were leaked are implying an incredibly expensive box, starting at $500 or more.
As a supporter of the OUYA controller I'm a supporter of a touch pad for PS4. Could have implications for navigating the UI as well as gameplay features.
Finally, I don't agree that the rumoured specs point to an expensive box, though if it is I would be incredibly surprised, especially as these systems are far more modest than their predecessors and using low cost, tried and tested architecture.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Adam Campbell on 6th February 2013 11:44pm
If you look at the overall modesty, Ithink we could be surprised. And consider how cheap even laptops are that carry modern Intel Core and discrete graphics architectures. An embedded mass produced system can only be cheaper to produce.
I'm not dismissing you though. It would be easy for design mistakes or oversights to me made that would push the price up to unnecessary levels.... but I'm more positive given we know how important bringing the price down is to Sony this generation and how different their approach to hardware is now.
I think the price will come in at the high end, but don't you think Microsoft will attempt a 2-year subscription service buy in for its system, at perhaps 149.00 to 199.00, as they currently do with the 99.00/2 year buy in on the current 360..? That may pull in folks who would normally bypass the system completely at that upfront 500.00 cost (even if it actually costs them a bit more in the long run...)
@ Adam I don't think it is. From what I can tell their GPU is around the level of a GTX 660, which is a $250 GPU on the consumer end, probably $200 on the manufacturer end.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Nicholas Pantazis on 7th February 2013 12:57am
The PS3/360 were at the high end of DX9-esque chips of the time, PS4/Durango are mid-range.
We have never been able to compare off the shelf prices to console ones, especially given the manufacturing deals involved. This is also a deal from a single manufacturer (first point) who will probably look to fabricate the CPU and GPU on the same die or a multichip package (second point) and its AMD who are still willing to sell GPUs for cheaper on the market so I would expect so within the console market,direct to Sony/MS/Nintendo compared to nVIDIA who have been seen as 'pricey'.
The Cell processor cost more than the RSX, up to $170 according to analysts, the CPU in the PS4 will be cheaper.
Blue ray drives, which were the most expensive PS3 component will not cost between $200 and $300 this generation even if they're improved.
I think its just as easy to imagine a cheaper console.
PS3 launched at an almost record launch price here 425 GBP. Launching at 300 even would be a major improvement and realistic given the components (as a note, the reduced price PS3 40GB that launched a year later was that price).
The Xbox 360 launch price was even more favourable, even the premium model. I would expect Sony to try and replicate that IF possible using a similar approach to the architecture/design.
Edited 2 times. Last edit by Adam Campbell on 7th February 2013 1:27am
I think the key selling point that is missed is a Launch line up of Epic proportion. People buy consoles to play Games. No good games, who wants to buy the console? You need to have the Flagship titles (new Killzone, Wipeout, Uncharted) and some big 3rd party support. You need exclusive titles, and something that MicroSoft have been good at - timed exclusive DLC. If a gamer feels his needs will be met, he will invest, if he feels he can get the same elsewhere, he wont.
1. 1080p Out of the box on all games
2. A perceived boost in visuals (for boost read post processing effects galore).
3. Upgraded staple franchises.
4. Media support like NetFlix, iPlayer etc. etc. out of the box.
5. Backward compatibility.
One of the keys will definitely be that backwards compatibility. People were pretty reluctant to ditch their old games current gen and many a gamer is still bitter about it. This new gen is going to be hard pressed to convince people to do another write off of hundreds of pounds worth of games unless it's to trade against the cost for the console upgrade itself.
The key thing is that, beyond the expected visual boost, there isn't actually much more these new units can bring to the table. Anything of the quality of Crysis 3 at 60fps is going to be the expected norm for gamers from now on. Other than this the only other seller will be the titles themselves. Visually neither the next XBox nor PS4 will vary much at all.
You can nail everything on launch day, but if you don't keep that up as the days and years go by, it won't count for anything in the long run. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Daniel Hughes on 7th February 2013 9:53am
then
" Anything of the quality of Crysis 3 at 60fps is going to be the expected norm for gamers from now on"
"1080p Out of the box on all games"
You do realize that this absolutely requires a very strong GPU? I don't think you can even overstate the GPU's importance, really.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Felix Leyendecker on 7th February 2013 10:21am
For PS4 to succeed it has to give tens of millions of people what they want. And Sony have to do this better than Microsoft, Nintendo or Apple. The specification is irrelevant, it is the consumer experience that matters. As the Wii proved.
The Cell processor is going to come back and bite Sony again as it takes away backwards compatibility with PS3, vastly reducing what the PS4 can offer to its users at launch.
I just can't see a way out for Sony. They have screwed up everything so badly. And they don't have the financial muscle to buy their way out.
They could out Apple what Apple will do, but that would take an immense change in culture and in business model that just doesn't seem likely.
They could out Microsoft what Microsoft will do, but they just lack the horsepower and are already well behind.
The market has changed from expensive games played by a few to cheap games played by many. The whole console business model has to adapt to this.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Bruce Everiss on 7th February 2013 11:05am
Some people forget that GPUs a couple of years ago could achieve 10x the computing power of any current gen console. Only hampered by the fact they're in PCs and have very high level APIs - a million engineers and programmers have stated this.
What "GPU Strength" are we expecting? 1080p isn't the biggest achievement anymore, so its not unrealistic even without a bank breaking media box. How consistently we get 1080p or 60 frame per second will depend on some other factors though, such as how high certain studios are targeting.
From a PS4, perspective, I can't imagine anyone frowning at the visual quality Naughty Dog, Santa Monica, Guerrilla or Polyphony could achieve at those resolutions or frame-rates even on a more modest PS4 than some seem to expect.
Its half speculation anyway...
:)
1080p 30 2x, which isn't so bad. Where you could get 4-5x the graphics at double the current standard res... In a very crudely approximated sense. But still impressive.
I'd say a lot of people haven't pictured what 5x the graphics would look like at 1080p and this is considering we have the advantage of using completely different approaches to rendering...natively without having to support legacy ideas and standards. Well, *potentially* wouldn't want to make it sound like a forgone conclusion ;)
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Adam Campbell on 7th February 2013 1:34pm
- The article doesn't mention PlayStation Plus. This is potentially a killer app, if Sony market it strongly enough alongside the new console (or even had an option that got you the console free or at a discount in exchange for a higher priced two year Playstation Plus contract). For what you pay for online multiplayer and some media apps on Xbox 360 (all of which is free on PS3), you get a couple of dozen free games a year plus one hour free trials on dozens more games and special discounts on other content. That's great value for money.
- If they can get remote play working properly for all games on PS4 -> Vita, and let you use a Vita as a controller and second screen for the PS4, that's potentially a big selling point for both systems, especially if they can bring down the price of the Vita a bit more. I know I'd buy a Vita in a heartbeat if I could play all my PS3 games remotely on it while my wife's watching TV.
- If the rumours about Durango are true, Microsoft could be about to spectacularly shoot themselves in the foot with a killer combo of a bundled Kinect 2, always on DRM, and no support for rental, borrowed or second hand games. That's likely to have a significant percentage of their user base up in arms, consumer rights groups around the world reaching for their lawyers, and specialist retailers upset at losing one of their most profitable revenue streams. If Sony can resist the temptation to jump off that cliff with them (and the signs aren't great for that), they might just pick up the pieces.
That said, Felix is right that 1080p@60 is an unrealistic hope. Keep in mind that most current gen games didn't even run at 720p, opting for something like 600p (a little higher or lower). Indeed of the ones that ran at 720p, basically none broke 30fps. So even with a decent-sized graphical leap, we'll probably get 1080p, but unlikely 60fps paired with it, because when it comes to selling your game to a console owner crowd, most don't notice or care about fps. They just want it to look as pretty as possible. So like this generation, games will likely push graphical effects over actual framerate.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Nicholas Pantazis on 7th February 2013 1:50pm
720P @60fps is 55296000 pixels a second. (55 Million)
1080P @60fps is 124416000 pixels a second. (124 Million)
1080P @30fps is 62208000 pixels a second (62 Million)
This is double the work just to leap from 720P to 1080P (i know i've over simplified this).
This is before you want to add more post-processing, tesselation, and other new "shinyawesomecoolstuff".
I'd be surprised if PS4/Durango could run current Gen at 1080P@60fps without a problem, i tthink the choice will be 720P @60fps, or 1080P @30fps.
Consumers will rather prefer to have a platform where they will be able to buy and sell their games without being restricted by a one time code. Moreover, I don't know about you, but Im not playing online all the time, and I would hate having to be connected all the time to play. (Ubisoft DRM was not a good example to say it was sh..?)
About the resolution, what is the point in speaking about 4k when there is no tv supporting it? I mean, there is, but which are far too expansive at the moment. I just hope we could have a real 1080p and that would be all.
Searching for a movie on Netflix or writing a message even is a pain in the backside without any additional peripherals.
Rentals/Borrowing will be delegated to demo'ish situations, also, why carry a disk around, we all know that there will be a day and date digital and physical release of every game, and I think we will see more people wanting to download their games instead of having disks.
This opens up longtail business again for publishers, no longer restricted by retail shelf.
This happens every console cycle, I am shocked we all have such short memories. Last time around we freaked out about "Patches" and "Online Play destroying the singleplayer" things that the PC had been doing for years. Now the consoles are doing what PC have been doing for the last 7 years. Digital downloads, locking games to accounts, free to play, online verification. Its all there, there is nothing "new" about what any of these consoles are going to do, they will do what PC has been doing for a long long time.
So you see, I fear that Sony is, in part, doomed from the start. The average video game consumer is less intelligent and less discerning than they were ten years ago. They don't buy their own software and they don't demand quality anymore either. If Sony delivers twenty of the top twenty five quality experiences next gen., as they have this gen.,(with The Last Of Us still to come) I will consider it a victory for Sony, for me and most of all, for the industry. Before games made billions of dollars it was all about pushing the technological envelope. With Sony... it still is.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Gregory Hommel on 8th February 2013 5:52am
If PS4 in example is as powerful as the specs suggest and has that much memory, why would there be an issue running current games at 1080p60fps? When a 2006 PC significantly less powerful already can...
I agree that targets for games will not likely go for both high res and high frame rate, if specific to the new generation.
From what little I could read of your 'wall' of text I can probably agree with some of the less extravagant points. I'd love to read the hole thing but I really can't without some paragraphs in between.
Edit please? :)
This is simply not true from the technical perspective. The Xenon is a bit underrated, but it is easier to get the most out of it, and its GPU is way faster than the PS3. Sony was arrogant with the PS3, and ignored the news, while Microsoft did not. And had a much better lineup at launch, and was cheaper. That was the primary reason naysayers were there, as the PS3 simply did not meet the expecations.
I love games. I would never suggest that someone who is satisfied with what the competition has to offer pay more to have the best. But, when a new generation launches people don't turn their new machine on to see what new social features it has. No one hurries home, unplugs all their old gear, meticulously places their new console in the entertainment center and says "I hope there is Free-To-Play!" We all want to see how much more realistic and immersive the worlds developers build for us can be.
From title to title, generation to generation, we want to see it grow. Uncharted impressed me, Uncharted 3 blew me away. Gran Turismo 5 became so realistic I suddenly wasn't good at it any more. Infamous was impressive though imperfect. Infamous 2 knocked it out of the park. Conversely, Gears of War was the best of the trilogy. Modern Warfare has devolved each iteration as well. 6 titles on that engine. Wow! Can you argue with that? Give me some real time physics. Give me more light sources. Give me decent AI. The Cell's SPU's make all that possible, even if it isn't as... easy. I hope my empty spaces and separated paragraphs make my rambling easier to read for some.