Analyst expects Halo 3 to quickly reach $200 million

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian is predicting that sales of Halo 3 could reach USD 200 million in "one of the largest and most successful product launches in digital entertainment."

Sebastian based his prediction upon "conversations with Xbox management as well as our own industry checks," with "significant preorders and broad consumer anticipation" of the Xbox 360 title. More than one million copies of the game have been pre-ordered.

"In addition, we expect Halo 3 to drive increasing Xbox 360 hardware sell-through, supported by the August price cuts," said Sebastian. "We note that incremental retail foot traffic resulting from the Halo 3 launch benefits video game specialty retailer GameStop."

As for competing consoles, Sebastian expects PS2 software prices to decrease, possibly accompanied by a hardware price drop. Even if Sony drops the price of the PS3 during the holidays, he expects the price of the 360 to hold steady, although he does not "rule out the possibility of other promotional activities into the holiday period as Microsoft seeks to take full advantage of Halo 3 momentum."

Microsoft has already stated that they expect Halo 3 to break the record set by its predecessor, Halo 2, which itself surpassed the film Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest as the highest grossing entertainment launch.