Sony and Nintendo will tie in hardware race, says former SCEE boss

Deering predicts third place for Microsoft

Speaking at the Edinburgh Interactive Festival this morning, former SCEE president Chris Deering predicted Sony and Nintendo will tie in the hardware sales stakes by 2011.

The EIF chairman presented figures he arrived at by triangulating Screen Digest and IDG data. He also took into account factors such as the growth of hi-def and the grey gamer market, the emergence of new game engines and increasing ubiquity of wi-fi access. He said the active installed base for hardware is set to rise from 316 million to 500 million over the next three years, with "two big mega-powers" leading the charge.

According to Deering sales of the DS and any future iterations of the hardware will reach 150 million by 2011, while the figure for Wii will be 80 million. He predicted the installed base for PS3 will be 70 million, and said for PS2 it will be 90 million and PSP will be 70 million. In other words, Sony and Nintendo will each have sold 230 million machines.

Deering said he believes the Xbox 360 and any sequels will experience "decent growth", predicting an installed base of 40 million by 2011. He observed this figure is higher than some analysts are projecting, adding, "This is not necessarily because I've got some issues with Xbox 360 in Continental European countries et cetera, but because of the set-top box hi-def phenomenon."

In addition, Deering predicted the number of potential gamers will rise to 2.5 billion worldwide when also taking into account the installed bases for computers and mobile phones.

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Latest comments (3)

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.8 years ago
His numbers are all over the place. The PS2 already has 130 million units shipped so what's with the projected 90 million? The Wii is projected by Nintendo to have 50 million by the end of the fiscal only another 30 million for the next 2.5 years? The PS3 is projected to ship 23 million according to Sony by the end of the fiscal year but will some how jump phenomenally to 70 million in 2.5 years? That's about 20 million shipped per year after this fiscal year. The PS2 only managed to top 20 million shipped in a FY once and I don't see the PS3 doing that twice in a row with its current circumstance, market and competition.

Mr. Deering, shame on you for being a former Sony exec and fudging the PS2 numbers by about 40 million. You also might want to look into using a different analyst. IDG and Screen Digest have been wrong on every one of their published projections this generation.
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Rupert Loman Founder & CEO, Gamer Network8 years ago
He was talking about "active" users - hence the decrease in PS2 over the coming years.
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Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.8 years ago
How does one calculate "active users" on a console? That sounds like a term with very loose definitions that won't have much value to it because of its vagueness.

Was the PS2 the only console with "active users" listed or was his reference to the other consoles also falling under the category?

I note the use of 'install base' and 'sold' and only one instance of anything indicative of 'active users', "He said the active installed base for hardware...."

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