Nintendo NX to ship 10-12 million in 2016 - Report

This doesn't seem to fit with it being a straight replacement for the wiiu, unless Nintendo have cause to be very optimistic about year 1 sales?

The shipping figures are not unrealistic and I'm sure the suppliers are capable of delivering that. The main question is whether or not it will convert to sales, as we don't really know what it is yet.

Certainly you have to order a reasonable amount of components for manufacturing before launch but that many when no one even knows what the hell it is yet is unheard of.

I'm dubious but hopeful.

Let's try another perspective. Assume you were working at Nintendo's supplier and a list of components landed on your desk. It could go two ways.

In scenario one, you assemble the hardware in your head and it does not make sense at all. Your intuition says "wtf is this?" More often than not, this is your typical reaction to a Nintendo hardware reveal.

In scenario two, however, the device you assemble in your head makes sense, because it sounds familiar. Sort of like the Inception bwaaaah in every movie trailer telling you that this the the type of action schlock you regularly watch.

Outside of the people having a dev kit, nobody knows what the NX is. But based on the reaction of the supplier, chances are high that the NX makes intuitively sense to potential customers. This might be the one bit of information we take away from this. Which immediately raises the question about NX games from exclusives to third party.

I'm getting one.

Well, that's 2 sales out of the 10-12 million.

I know what it is and I'll be the first in line to buy both of them.

The Wii U hardware was only part of the problem, so good hardware is only part of the solution

Did Nintendo fix?
For developers
Good development kit
Easy acces to knowledge
Good communication lines between Nintendo and Developers

For indies
Easy way to submit, patch, release games on the e-shop

Hardware needed
Hardware futureproof hardware so at least
1 TB of decent storage
Decent GPU including at least 4GB of RAM
Standard Controller

OS
Modular OS with easy upgrade posibilities
Account management for e-shop including easy migration from Wii U to Nintendo GX

Online Capabilities
Easy way to add, interact, chat and play with friends

For gamers
Broad appeal of games so every popular genre has titles

Development Capacity
Yes Nintendo makes great games but they seriously lack in capacity. Nintendo should be able to release at least 8 - 12 titles per platform (NX, 3DS) even more if you included smaller digitall games or rereleased

Call me cynical but it would be a miracle if Nintendo can achieve most of this. The biggest problem of Nintendo that they don't think as a platform holder. You should make your platform as attractive as possible.

spelling errors

Account management for e-shop including easy migration from Wii U to Nintendo GX

Nintendo Account launched in Japan yesterday (link for those well-versed in Japanese: https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/a5e6bf2e-9197-11e5-b940-0a6d14145cb1.html ), so that's one off your list.

This 10m to 12m number is based on what time frame? The above says 2016 but no TV based console has ever sold through this many units in its first quarter to 6 months (assuming the NX would launch in the last 3 to 6 months of 2016) of its lifecycle. We need more detail before we can start any sales forecasting process that doesn't depend on historical experience.

As far as 2016 goes.. they will be competing for wallets open to AR and VR all year (hw & sw).. current gen consoles are entrenched.. so good luck with bringing something incredibly intriguing to the mindshare :)

Did Nintendo fix?

For indies
Easy way to submit, patch, release games on the e-shop

OS
Modular OS with easy upgrade posibilities
Account management for e-shop including easy migration from Wii U to Nintendo GX

Online Capabilities
Easy way to add, interact, chat and play with friends

For gamers
Broad appeal of games so every popular genre has titles

Development Capacity
Yes Nintendo makes great games but they seriously lack in capacity. Nintendo should be able to release at least 8 - 12 titles per platform (NX, 3DS) even more if you included smaller digital games or rereleased.

Hi Rogier. They've already addressed some of that or are in the process of it.

The indie issue is a night and day difference between Wii and Wii U. That's why the indie community on Wii U is actually far better than the retail sales of the console suggest it should be.

The new OS is already supposed to function across multiple devices. Same with the account system which just launched in Japan a few days ago.

Broad range of games...they actually had that at the Wii U launch. Take a look at the launch list. The problem is there was no follow up by 3rd parties.

Development capacity is in line with all their consoles since the NES.
NES - ~70 games.
SNES - ~50 games.
N64 - ~50 games.
GC - ~50 games.
Wii - ~70 (not including Wii Ware)
Wii U - 37 so far (56 including eShop titles).

Who says the NX replaces the Wii U?

Also Nintendo isn't going to do a clone of the PS4 and X1. The market can't support a 3rd same console. And trying to jump into the middle of a generation with a very similar console means you're behind the curve.

NX isn't exactly hardware specific. It's a development platform that can support different hardware form factors. Iwata said as much if I remember correctly.