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Is Facebook buying Oculus a boost for Morpheus?

Is Facebook buying Oculus a boost for Morpheus?

Fri 28 Mar 2014 7:57am GMT / 3:57am EDT / 12:57am PDT
Hardware

Why Sony must be relieved at Oculus' $2bn deal

Sony Computer Entertainment

Sony Computer Entertainment is a Japanese videogame company specialising in a variety of areas in the...

playstation.com

Last week, as Sony squared up to Oculus across the GDC conference schedule, it looked like we were set for a real David and Goliath battle over the future of VR. Plucky little Oculus, given its first breath of life on Kickstarter before earning a hefty wedge from Silicon Valley venture capitalist extraordinaire Andreessen Horowitz, rekindled the VR dream; now it was to be joined in the race by resurgent behemoth Sony. Oculus had first-mover advantage, remarkable technology and John Carmack. Sony, for all its recent troubles, remains perhaps the finest manufacturer of high- quality consumer hardware on earth (second to Apple, perhaps, but with a far broader scope of operations). This was shaping up to be a fascinating fight, one which could be extremely good for VR in general - driving forward standards, igniting competition and generating endless press coverage and awareness along the way.

This week, we're still promised a battle - but it turns out that David, too, is a Goliath. Even as Sony was revealing Project Morpheus to the world at GDC, Oculus was hammering out the details of what seems to have been a remarkably rapid acquisition deal with Facebook. It helped, no doubt, that Marc Andreessen is both Oculus' main investor and a long-standing Facebook board member; his dual role was no doubt vital in making this into a rapid elopement rather than a long courtship, with a $2 billion Vegas wedding at the end of a short race down the highway.

"Sony, for all its recent troubles, remains perhaps the finest manufacturer of high- quality consumer hardware on earth"

Goliath versus Goliath it is, then. Plenty of keyboards have been furiously hammered this week regarding the implications of the deal; Facebook is untrustworthy and creepy; Facebook's money is the best thing that could have happened to VR; this is a betrayal of an implicit promise to Kickstarter backers; Kickstarter backers who feel that way clearly didn't understand what they were actually buying; and so on, and so on. I'm still interested in the upcoming battle, though. As grateful as I am to Palmer Luckey and his crew for reviving the dormant dream of virtual reality, my own interests aren't pinned exclusively to Oculus. What Facebook's involvement does to Oculus is interesting, of course, but only as part of a wider picture - what does Facebook's involvement do to VR? What does it do to the emergent competitive landscape that we started to glimpse last week?

Put yourself in Sony's position. What's the thought process within Sony Computer Entertainment about the Facebook deal? Of course, Sony will now face a competitor with a vastly enhanced budget, eliminating one of the advantages it held over its smaller rival. Despite this, Sony's actual reaction is likely to be one of relief mixed with intrigue, not concern. The reality is that Oculus was always going to be acquired by a larger company. Sony knew from the outset that it wouldn't enter the market against a $75 million company, but against a division of a larger rival; a reality to which even John Carmack diplomatically alluded when he commented on Twitter that "the FB deal will avoid several embarrassing scaling crisis".

"Oculus Rift was never going to reach the market off the back of Andreessen Horowitz' $75 million and a few million from Kickstarter"

Oculus Rift was never going to reach the market off the back of Andreessen Horowitz' $75 million and a few million from Kickstarter; anyone who thought so has no knowledge of the budgets required for an ambitious hardware launch. At some point, Oculus was going to have to look for a much, much bigger round of funding, and in a speculative market with at least one major competitor breathing down your neck, that kind of funding either comes as an acquisition deal, or doesn't come at all. Oculus was sooner rather than later going to reach a crossroads at which it would either be acquired, or implode.

Oculus' leadership knew that, of course, and Andreessen in particular would have been very conscious that once Sony made a credible entry into the race, his company's window of opportunity would start to close. If Oculus didn't make a move to secure its financial future before another major competitor could turn up - Microsoft being the most likely, with Valve also in the running - then its chances of securing an acquisition or even another round of funding would collapse entirely. Hence the rapid deal with Facebook.

Why would Sony be relieved by this development? Because if Oculus was going to be bought by anyone, Facebook isn't a bad option at all. Facebook doesn't compete directly with Sony - in fact, it's probably quite happy to work with Sony. Sony doesn't want to make money from social advertising, while Facebook's interest in making money from games is fairly marginal at best. Facebook's money backing Oculus makes the contest between Rift and Morpheus even more interesting, but doesn't change the playing field all that much. What Sony feared, no doubt, was that Oculus would be acquired by a much more aggressive partner - again, the pair mentioned above, Microsoft and Valve, would be top of the list.

"A high-profile entry into VR could finally justify the Xbox One's albatross, Kinect, since the device stands to come into its own as a controller for VR experiences"

Microsoft is working on something to do with VR, while Valve is thought to have all manner of experimentation going on, involving everything from wearable computing devices to VR. Nonetheless, either of these firms would see a major leap forward in their efforts from an acquisition of Oculus. A high-profile entry into VR could finally justify the Xbox One's albatross, Kinect, since the device stands to come into its own as a controller for VR experiences; finally, a use that core gamers can get behind. Valve, meanwhile, would have been the most straightforward marriage for Oculus, as the company which has become the de facto platform holder for PC gaming took charge of the most exciting PC gaming peripheral in years.

Either of those deals would have given Sony serious pause for thought, potentially even leading to a change in strategy or approach for Morpheus. Neither of those deals actually happened, though. We're still left wondering what Microsoft and Valve are up to in this field, but barring a truly shocking announcement (and neither firm is given to Apple-style "here's our new product, and it's out tomorrow" unveilings) it looks like Oculus and Sony remain frontrunners. Only one of those is a platform holder with enormous engineering, manufacturing and game development resources at its fingertips. Facebook's money will help to buy some of those; the ingenuity of people like Luckey and Carmack will make up some of the remaining ground; but Sony won't feel like the scales have truly tipped very much this week at all.

It's tempting to go a little further with this line of argument and say that Oculus has just handed a competitive advantage to Sony by seriously annoying its most loyal fans and supporters. Many will point out the correspondance between these events and those that transpired between Sony and Microsoft last year, when Microsoft's poor messaging and manoeuvring handed an enormous competitive advantage to PS4 without Sony really having to lift a finger. Oculus becoming part of Facebook - a company deeply disliked by plenty of core gamers - could be portrayed in a similar light, as a "betrayal" of those supporters which will drive them into Sony's camp. After all, whatever failings Sony may have, Project Morpheus has been presented to the world as a project firmly based within the Sony Computer Entertainment division and thus entirely focused on games. Just as Microsoft's incessant blather about television and other media made the early adopter audience feel like Xbox One was out of touch with their desires, Oculus' purchase by Facebook opens it to lines of criticism about not really being about games.

"As long as Luckey and Carmack remain on board, which they will, and the product continues to evolve and impress, Facebook's role will fade into the background"

It's a compelling argument but I don't believe that things will pan out that way. For one thing, where Microsoft was making fundamental changes to their product that gamers perceived as negative, anti-consumer and disrespectful of the core audience, Oculus hasn't changed anything except its corporate ownership structure. As long as Luckey and Carmack remain on board, which they will, and the product continues to evolve and impress, Facebook's role will fade into the background and this week's anger will quickly dissipate. For another thing, there is a really significant platform issue here. Rift is a PC peripheral; Morpheus is tied to the PS4. As a consequence, there's plenty of room in the market for both, but more importantly, PC gamers (a truly devoted band) are unlikely to jump ship to console over something as pedantic as a sense of discomfort regarding the corporate ownership structure of a company that makes an interesting peripheral.

Of more concern to Oculus, and representing a greater opportunity for Sony, is the apparent disquiet felt by some developers over Facebook's involvement. Led by Minecraft creator Notch, a small band of indies have announced their withdrawal from Oculus Rift development since the FB deal. Oculus will no doubt be working to make this withdrawal temporary. If Sony's developer relations team isn't also working furiously to bring some projects exclusively to Morpheus while this upheaval is ongoing, they're missing a trick - and I don't get the impression that Sony's impressive third-party relations team has missed very many tricks over the past year or two.

In the long term, I agree with the broad assessment offered by many of the more considered commentators this week; this FB deal has the potential to be the best thing that has happened to VR since Oculus first announced the Rift. It brings a major new player into the sector, provides massive funding to one of the most exciting new game technology companies of the past decade, and yet leaves the competition between Oculus and Sony wide open and ripe with opportunity. For all that the FB deal is attracting the ire of a vocal group of core gamers, it seems clear that VR this week is even more exciting than it was last week.

12 Comments

Popular Comment
An accurate and balanced account. The events of the past week have vindicated the passion that many of us have for VR. There is a lot of synergy in this competition and its going to be fascinating to see how it develops. VR requires the seamless integration of multiple components and no one does that better than Sony. Oculus will benefit from continuing PC development but cannot count on all their users having the same equipment.

Posted:8 months ago

#1

Neil Young Programmer, Rebellion Developments

312 412 1.3
Oculus Rift was never going to reach the market off the back of Andreessen Horowitz' $75 million and a few million from Kickstarter; anyone who thought so has no knowledge of the budgets required for an ambitious hardware launch.
This is a very good point rob - looking at the original kickstarter page, it was explicitly a kickstarter for the *devkits*. A full commercial launch was always going to need further funding from somewhere, and they don't appear to have ever implied otherwise.

Posted:8 months ago

#2
People project and foist their expectations

Posted:8 months ago

#3

Rob Homewood Game Designer, Unity Programmer & Producer

16 4 0.3
Personally I'm just excited to see VR heading towards some kind of vague ubiquity at a higher velocity :)

Posted:8 months ago

#4

Todd Weidner Founder, Big Daddy Game Studio

430 1,027 2.4
I think what happened is that the whole VR space is now once again up for grabs. Whenever a new tech begins to catch the masses imagination one company catches fire while others do not, and it not always about who has the very best tech specs, there are usually some other goodwill/community/coolness, hard to pin down variables, at play. The tech landscape is littered with techs and companies that went from being hip/cool/popular , to not, and they then just faded away . Headed into this upcoming VR battle for market share, Oculus RIft had the "it" factor on it side, what happened this week is that it traded in that "it" factor for some cash and funny money.

Either way VR is coming, now just many of us dont care who brings it, just that someone does.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Todd Weidner on 28th March 2014 3:17pm

Posted:8 months ago

#5

Kenneth Bruton Producer

38 8 0.2
I am going to watch to see if Oculus will remain autonomous from FaceBook. If the Rift has any FaceBook integration, it would totally undermine its purpose, in my opinion.

Posted:8 months ago

#6

Jack Pochop Studying Telecommunications, Indiana University

27 16 0.6
It will be interesting to see if FaceBook reveals little to no interest in the creative direction of the Rfit. Remaining solely a "behind the scenes" entity is an interesting perspective, as it seems like every large media company is racing to own and involve themselves in each sector of new media - whether or not they have a vested interest in collaborating with the "sub" company. From streaming, cloud accounts, gaming, internet TV, and the infinite so on, it's a trend that I've noticed for some time.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Jack Pochop on 28th March 2014 3:40pm

Posted:8 months ago

#7

Greg Wilcox Creator, Destroy All Fanboys!

2,196 1,176 0.5
I wonder just how many fb users have or will have PC's capable of running any Rift games or "experiences"? Or will the product basically be an expensive Viewmaster now that uses scaling requirements per device? Eh, we'll see...

Posted:8 months ago

#8

Hermann Rauth Game Audio Designer

10 1 0.1
Wow. Amazing article. The best and most accurate analysis so far. Kudos, kudos, great job!

Posted:8 months ago

#9
Michael Abrash has just announced that he has joined Oculus. Its thrilling to see so many great minds working on VR.

Posted:8 months ago

#10

Paul Jace Merchandiser

955 1,449 1.5
I don't think it will provide hardly any boost for Sony. When this deal was announced across the internet most people, outside of industry insiders such as the people who post on this site, had never even heard of Oculus and because it won't be released anytime soon will have just as quickly forgotten about it. Since Sony's Morpheus isn't part of any forseeable big acquisition(and also isn't due for release within the next year) it will remain just as unknown to the world at large(outside of indutry insiders) as the Oculus was before this deal.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Paul Jace on 29th March 2014 6:46am

Posted:8 months ago

#11
Welldone GI.biz - nice summation of the situation.

For me, with only the $175m - Oculus was in a limited burn trajectory, and we would have looked at a ten year adoption path... that may have been too long for the majority of the entertainment community. Now with the $400m we know that Oculus will have no excuses towards establishing VR into the mainstream.

Regarding Sony - there are a lot of issues still to be addressed - the whole scam over the "was it" - "wasn't it" a unmodified PS4 running any of the demos at GDC. Also the whole issue of the performance - what has been called "good enough VR" against the holly grail that Oculus have placed in their sites since day one.

With FB now the consumer games media will have to drop their Wiki research of VR and take this subject seriously - so one success out of the deal from day one!

Posted:8 months ago

#12

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