Xbox One and PS4 to ship 5-6 million this year
Baird analyst gives Microsoft's console the edge during launch window, expects shortages of both
With the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 launching next month, industry watchers are beginning to handicap the horse race. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian is the latest to weigh in, telling investors this morning that he expects total worldwide shipments of the two consoles to come in between 5 million and 6 million units this year.
He projected each console to ship 1.5 million to 2 million units in North America, and 2.5 million to 3 million worldwide. Despite the identical ranges, Sebastian suggested the Xbox One may outsell the PS4.
"While many forecasts still give an edge to Sony/PS4 in North America sales, we continue to expect similar or even slightly higher sales of Xbox One by the end of the launch window," Sebastian said.
Sebastian also noted that while both systems are currently listed on eBay at healthy mark-ups, Xbox One systems are averaging a 60 percent premium over the $500 retail price tag, while PS4s are fetching 50 percent mark-ups over that system's $400 asking price.
"Retailers in our checks indicate there is consumer demand well in excess of supply, as evidenced by fast sell-outs of incremental unit allotments, such as at GameStop," Sebastian said. "Looking further ahead, we still believe a more accurate gauge of new cycle demand should be made after the initial sales window, dominated by core gamer fans."
The problem with using eBay for this, among many other reasons, is that the Xbox One has a special, sold out, Day One edition with cool branding and all, which for many is worthy of the extra premium.
That said, if stock wasn't the deciding factor, my money's on the Xbox edging out sales in the US too, the brand is just phenomenally strong, and its attachment to the CoD franchise can't be understated.
Side note: I miss when headlines that weren't facts used to highlight said flaw in the headline itself.
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Sebastian Moss on 25th October 2013 5:30pm
What remains to be seen is how long these sell outs will last. Will they last thru out Janauary or even further? Hopefully not because theres going to be a big need for systems in the spring when the second wave of games hit(Titanfall, Watchdogs, Destiny) and I expect further sell outs at that point because any of those games have the potential to be system sellers, especially the first two.
However, considering CoD pre-orders have gone up 100K on Xbox One in the past two months, compared to only 50K on PS4, it does seem that for the CoD gamers, the Xbox is still the console of choice. After the console launches, the gap will likely begin to close for hardware sales, as more CoD fans flock to the console their friends are using. There's a good chance that by the time Treyarch's next effort rolls around, boosted by the earlier Titanfall release, the Xbox One may actually take the lead.
VG Chartz August figures: http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251266/ps4-vs-xbox-one-pre-order-totals-to-august-24th-2013/
VG Chartz October figures: http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251359/ps4-vs-xbox-one-us-pre-orders-update-xbox-one-gains-ground/
Edited 1 times. Last edit by Michael McGrath on 26th October 2013 1:56am
It's not the MOST honest marketplace, that's for sure (says the guy who's had an account there for about 12 years or so, yeesh)...