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Xbox One: The Last Microsoft Console?

Xbox One: The Last Microsoft Console?

Thu 29 Aug 2013 2:23pm GMT / 10:23am EDT / 7:23am PDT
BusinessHardware

Analysts debate whether Microsoft should get out of the devices business, including Xbox, following Ballmer's retirement

In a recent Reuters article (via Business Insider) author Bill Rigby points out that Microsoft has a lot of thinking to do when it comes to what strategy the company will pursue following CEO Steve Ballmer's exit. Microsoft can either push forward with Ballmer's vision for "One Microsoft," rallying the company's divisions together to create a future based on hardware and cloud-based services, or it can scrap Ballmer's ideas to focus on what's always been its core strength: business software.

If it ultimately turns out that Microsoft chooses the former of those options, it could very well mean abandoning the Xbox business by selling or spinning it off. Yes, there is a scenario in which the upcoming Xbox One console could be Microsoft's last hurrah in the video game hardware sector.

"I think this could be a possibility. We have always wondered how long Microsoft would stay with the game hardware business," DFC Intelligence analyst David Cole commented to GamesIndustry International. "Their strategy for Xbox One clearly looks like it will not be a success on a grand scale. So I think that the Xbox One could represent the last of Microsoft in video game hardware."

Not so fast, says independent analyst Billy Pidgeon. He remarked that the investment in Xbox is a long-term plan, one that shouldn't be viewed only through the lens of hardware. Succeeding with Xbox has bigger implications for Microsoft, while a focus on productivity software would probably only yield short-term profitability.

"Xbox affords Microsoft a strong affinity with gaming enthusiasts who tend to spend significantly on specialized digital media such as games. This gives Microsoft an edge against competition from Apple and Google"

Billy Pidgeon

"Those looking at Microsoft with a high level perspective as part of the general technology ecosystem have a tendency to think of Xbox strictly as a hardware business. And from a general overview, hardware is a risky, low margin opportunity with minimal mid to long term payoff. But the value in Xbox is primarily in consumer software and network sectors built for the dedicated Xbox console but also supporting usage across multiple platforms including web and mobile," Pidgeon told us.

"If Microsoft were to abandon efforts to broaden entertainment and leisure consumer software and networks in favor of doubling down on utility consumer and enterprise software the company would have more difficulty competing where other large technology companies are seeking growth -- in mobile and in the growing consumer digital media and network sectors."

He continued, "Xbox also affords Microsoft a strong affinity with gaming enthusiasts who tend to spend significantly on specialized digital media such as games. This gives Microsoft an edge against competition from Apple and Google. Google has much catching up to do on the games sector, and Apple is not likely to embrace gaming as a high value digital media due to the company's historical model in high volume low margin cheap digital media as a commodity to leverage high value (and relatively high margin) hardware."

The decision to continue or get out of hardware isn't so clear cut, however. And indeed, "the only Microsoft hardware that has gained any traction is the Xbox," Panoptic Management Consultants CEO Asif Khan noted. "Sadly, this is not what brings home the donuts for Microsoft."

That doesn't mean, though, that abandoning Xbox is a good idea. "The idea that selling Xbox or spinning off the whole device division would fix Microsoft's problems is very flawed," Khan said. "Microsoft, led by Steve Ballmer, missed out on an enormous opportunity to achieve some sort of attachment between Windows for PC and Windows on smartphones. At a time when Steve Jobs went all in on iPhone, Ballmer sat there opining that no one would buy it."

Perhaps new leadership from outside Microsoft is what the company really needs. Ballmer's management likely took the company in the wrong direction. "It isn't the structure of the company that is flawed, but the execution of management over the last 13 years," Khan said. Putting a "charismatic tech visionary at the helm" could be the breath of fresh air Microsoft needs.

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"Where is the room in the consumer electronics market for Microsoft in a world where Samsung offers the 'me too' devices and Google the 'me too' software to compete with whatever Apple is doing? Maybe it would make sense for Microsoft to sell off their devices business, but to what buyer? The problem is direction at the company. If they want to become an even more vertically integrated walled garden like Apple, they should definitely keep the company intact as is," he continued.

"If they want to get back to being the Microsoft of the '90s, perhaps they should focus on making the best software possible regardless of the device or platform it is on. I believe Microsoft can be a turnaround story in the next five years with the right focus, but in the meantime there is going to be a lot of noise around the CEO search. They have a very strong balance sheet, and a lot of talented people working there. Microsoft has spent more on R&D than any other tech company over the last 10 years, and I have to believe that there are a few great products hiding in some distant corner of their labs. Taking this into consideration, I believe it is unlikely that Microsoft would sell or spin off the Xbox or device divisions."

13 Comments

Martin Banak Graphic Designer, 3d Artist, Indie game dev

6 27 4.5
I personally think that Microsoft should focus on tight integration of all of its platform, meaning that Windows PC, Windows Phone and Xbox should be seamlessly interconnected, Windows RT needs to go... This would benefit users and eventually the company.

Kind regards,
Martin

Posted:A year ago

#1

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,287 2,507 1.1
As Asif Khan noted, and Martin Banak reiterated, MS should have worked hard to integrate the Xbox ecosystem with their PC and mobile platforms over the past decade.

I cannot foresee MS dissolving, spinning off or selling the Xbox division. While it is not as integrated with the rest of MS products and services as it should be, there is more than enough overlap taking place that any losses in the games division on hardware is recouped or profit realized through those existing connections. And there is more on the way.

Posted:A year ago

#2

Gareth Eckley Commercial Analyst

88 68 0.8
We're looking at the next generation entirely being software as a service.

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if people stopped selling consoles as platforms to lock in users. But I can easily see people selling cheap gaming orientated PCs with certain titles as bundle boxes. I mean, maybe I'm being stupid, but isn't that the whole reasons for the popularity of the Android and Ouya platforms?

Posted:A year ago

#3

Andrew Goodchild Studying development, Train2Game

1,255 421 0.3
Popular Comment
The Ouya has popularity? When did that happen?

Posted:A year ago

#4

Gareth Eckley Commercial Analyst

88 68 0.8
Free to play is the future, yo.

Posted:A year ago

#5

Morgan King Animator

48 92 1.9
It seems more likely that this is everybody's last major console - a decade from now our technology will be significantly different, and it seems unlikely that a dedicated gaming device will be needed.

Posted:A year ago

#6

Axel Cushing Writer / Blogger

109 134 1.2
@Gareth
Android (and at one remove Ouya) has two strings to its bow. The first is price. The second is portability. I pick up a freebie game on my phone, I can pick it up on a tablet, all on one transaction.

Even if your platform is software, there's still customer lock-in. Android's open source, but it's still using Google's Play Store for the money side of things, which means Google's the one making the bucks. Microsoft and Sony aren't suddenly going to stop locking people in even if tomorrow they announced CloudBox and PlayCloud (respectively) would be their next next generation consoles and would forever eschew hardware till the heat death of the Universe. The only way you could have software consoles without lock-in would be some sort of open source API that was easy enough to use right out of the box that nobody felt any need to modify it outside of company specific branding.

Posted:A year ago

#7
To turn round and make he statement that the Xbone has a ten year life cycle strikes me as underlining the out-of-touch process of those executives that are still at MS. As stated the company is looking at restructuring the XB division, and already there is a fist fight to be the new head.

In ten years I agree that the game sector will be more directed at supplying a service than a tangible piece of hardware or packaged game content - but I can never say never over the physical console, though MS may be a totally different entity by that point - if still a single group!

Posted:A year ago

#8

Klaus Preisinger Freelance Writing

1,186 1,273 1.1
Microsoft has a robust OS everybody knows to use.
Microsoft has the Office Suite for the cooperate front end.
Microsoft has cooperate back end products and undying loyalty of anybody producing cooperate software.
Microsoft has a strong console audience rivaling any competitor.

I wouldn't ask Microsoft to get out of the hardware market, i'd worry about Microsoft making a push for establishing their Xbox One as the defacto default office and home PC. It is certainly cheaper than some Dell Office i5.

So what if Microsoft is missing out on gimmicky devices? They used to "own PC" and they have a chance to re-own it like never before by taking over the hardware side as well. Hardware and services does not mean cell phones and hipster shovelware OS versions. It means going after big mainstream targets.

Posted:A year ago

#9

Adam Campbell Associate Producer, Miniclip Ltd

1,218 1,052 0.9
That would be ridiculous.

Posted:A year ago

#10

Tom Keresztes Programmer

700 354 0.5
Microsoft has a robust OS everybody knows to use.
They had, until Windows 8.

Posted:A year ago

#11

Andy Samson QA Supervisor, Digital Media Exchange

238 185 0.8
What's an Ouya? Console parents make their kids eat soap whenever their kids made mention of it.

Posted:A year ago

#12

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