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Smartphone shipments to reach 1.5 billion by 2017 - report

Smartphone shipments to reach 1.5 billion by 2017 - report

Thu 18 Jul 2013 2:32pm GMT / 10:32am EDT / 7:32am PDT
Mobile

New IHS data shows that global smartphone shipments should come close to 900 million this year

PS4 and Xbox One will be launching by the end of the year, but for most people in the world, that's irrelevant. Smartphones, on the other hand, see wider adoption every day, and the latest report from research firm IHS (as noted by Cnet) shows that in just a few years, the worldwide shipments figure for smartphones should hit 1.5 billion. That's over a fifth of the world's population.

It's expected that by the end of this year, worldwide smartphone shipments will reach close to 900 million units. Importantly, the mobile industry hit a huge milestone in the third quarter of 2012 when the actual global smartphone installed base reached 1 billion units. IHS said Apple should ship around 150 million iPhones this year, but that's not a massive rise from last year's number of 134 million. Apple's growth has definitely been dinged by Android and the popularity of new phones from the likes of Samsung and HTC.

"The possible slowing growth of the iPhone and the rapid pace of competitive smartphones releases speak to the ferocious nature of the handset business, especially now as the market continues to pivot from a market dominated by lower-end handsets known as feature phones to one that is increasingly smartphone-centric," IHS senior analyst Wayne Lam said.

The good news for game developers is that as more consumers ditch feature phones for smartphones, the potential game playing audience will continue to grow.

46 Comments

Jakub Mikyska CEO, Grip Digital

202 1,107 5.5
Popular Comment
"PS4 and Xbox One will be launching by the end of the year, but for most people in the world, that's irrelevant." ... stopped reading right there...
What's happening to GI lately? I remember I used to come here for solid journalism and unbiased opinions.

Posted:A year ago

#1

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
Never mind shipments, it is the installed base that matters. Which is probably just a little under 2 billion right now.

For most people in the world PS4 and XBone are irrelevant because they won't be able to buy one.

Posted:A year ago

#2

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
And for most developers, that 2 billion is irrelevant because most owners will never play games.

I'm also highly skeptical of that 2 billion figure. 1 out of every 3 people on the planet does not own an active smartphone.

Posted:A year ago

#3

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
@ Jim Webb

That old chestnut. 20 million people in the UK now play mobile games. A third of the population.
Phones are MORE likely to be used for gaming because they are with the owner 24/7 and in regular use. Whereas most consoles are gathering dust.

The number of smartphones in use exceeded 1 billion last year: http://www.onbile.com/info/how-many-people-use-smartphones-in-the-world/ Android alone must be past a billion now: http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/15/900-million-android-activations/
Smartphone shipments are currently at least a billion units a year. Hence the likelihood of exceeding 2 billion active smartphones soon.

Posted:A year ago

#4

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
I don't think I can trust your figures given the incredulity of the source for some of them. 80% of the entire population on earth has a mobile phone?

Posted:A year ago

#5

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
"PS4 and Xbox One will be launching by the end of the year, but for most people in the world, that's irrelevant." ... stopped reading right there...What's happening to GI lately?"

Maybe they noticed where all the money is going, this being a business site. On mobile, many individual GAMES are worth close to the entire UK console industry.

I'd switch to that one Bruce. It has more impact and is impossible to refute, though many will try. There's none so blind...

Edited 3 times. Last edit by Paul Johnson on 19th July 2013 12:03am

Posted:A year ago

#7

Nuttachai Tipprasert Programmer

79 60 0.8
Can we just talking about one platform without bashing the other platforms? I really feel like I'm reading Kotaku right now because of this...

I don't see any reasons why Xbox One and PS4 need to be mentioned in this article, seriously. I don't remember seeing smartphone being mentioned in the consoles related articles even once but why it is always the other way around?

Posted:A year ago

#8

Carlos Bordeu Game Designer / Studio Co-Founder, ACE Team

67 91 1.4
If Apple iPhones sales are being overtaken by Android based phones, isn't that bad news for mobile game developers? Aren't almost all the success stories from mobile gaming from the Apple app store?

People don't buy phones based on which ones are better for gaming... the games are an afterthought when it comes to purchasing a phone, which means that the dominant platorm is driven entirely by factors for which the game industry has little to no influence.

I'm not well informed (maybe Android mobile games do better than I think?), but I'd be interested to know if this worries anyone out there working on mobile.

Posted:A year ago

#9

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
@Carlos, the downside for me is that Android is more of a pita for QA purposes - much moreso than iOS. However, that's where the money is starting to go now. They're not #1 yet but catching up fast as a lot of countries just can't afford the prices of iDevices and have Android as the only practical choice.

I think you might need to rethink the gaming choice though. It's more a factor than you think, but the truth is even a budge phone is pretty powerful these days, so as long as they /want/ to plat gamers, their phones will be capable of it.

Posted:A year ago

#10

Jason Avent VP, Studio Head, NaturalMotion

139 140 1.0
Korea is a 90% Android market apparently. It's dominated by Kakao but some games have made an incredible amount of money there. Comparable with a few western territories combined. So although Android is a little more fractured and the ARPU is often less, it's still a very strong market.

I'm not sure that a third of the population of the world have smart phones. There are probably lots of disused phones that have been upgraded from. People will have more than one device at the same time too. A significant minority have both a tablet and a phone.

Finally I'll comment on the perceived hyperbole around phone installed based versus console. I realise some of the GI audience aren't interested in anything past console games - which is fine - but the Games Industry is multi-faceted and GI are great at covering a lot more than other sites which I think is admirable. In terms of reach and volume of ownership (even if most owners don't play games) the global mobile gaming community absolutely dwarfs the console gaming community and for the vast majority of the world consoles are irrelevant.

I'm happy to live in a part of the world that is free and financially able to passionately embrace game consoles - along with all the other gaming platforms.

Posted:A year ago

#11

Nick Parker Consultant

288 158 0.5
I'm prepared to give GI the benefit of the doubt on this one as we can see where they are coming from but they expressed it rather clumsily. I'm interested in the addressable market for games. In the Western World, developers tend to lead on iOS as it's a simpler execution since Android covers a multitude of devices and there are piracy concerns from the Far East as well as other technical factors. Anybody who comments on this site should appreciate that it's not mobile vs console but a gamer preferred experience and there are revenues to be made on all platforms if you have the resources and an attractive game. One of the issues here is how many people with a smartphone use it for games; people buy smart phones either because the range now outnumbers that of basic handsets and prices are pretty similar so why not, or because they knowingly buy one to access various apps or features, one of which may be games.

I know many people with smart phones who never play games on them but the critical mass of users to the multi-billion mark eventually will provide a significant addressable market for the industry without a shadow of a doubt.

Posted:A year ago

#12

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
Latest news. Android now up to 1.5 million new devices activated every DAY.
http://thediplomat.com/tech-biz/2013/07/19/google-1-5-million-daily-android-activations-50-billion-app-downloads/

So Android get far more new users every two months than Xbox 360 achieved in seven and a half years.
Or, alternately, the whole world installed base for the Wii U is equalled by Android every two days!

Posted:A year ago

#13

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
Bruce, the question is how many of them are for work = no gaming potential at all? The other question is how many of them are upgrades from last generation phm not denying the viability of the mobile market nor its immense size. Just the absolute hyperbole while also being frustrated by the arrogance, smugness, the superiority complex and constant doomsday propaganda from people that should be acting like our family from the same industry.

You don't hear movie execs or TV execs, truck designers or SUV designers, rail execs or aviation execs, etc...denounce each other every day. No. In fact, most work together to align their segments of their industries together for harmonious business. Why the hell can't we do the same thing? Are we really just as childish as the majority of the people we sell (sorry, license) most of our products (services) to?

Posted:A year ago

#14

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
@Jim Webb
Execs in other industries are at each other's throats all the time. Just look at Airbus Vs Boeing.

According to Flurry about 30% of total mobile phone usage is for gaming. From what I have seen tablets are about double this. Hence the success of SuperCell going primarily for tablets.

As for upgrades. I would think that most smartphones made are still in use. They just get handed down. There is always someone grateful for a smartphone. The comparable problem for consoles is that most of them are not being used any more, they just gather dust. The console game industry has shrunk enormously and is given far more prominence than it now deserves. It really is just a hardcore niche.

Every time I get on a bus, tube or a train I see lots of people playing video games on their mobiles. This is a revolution. Video gaming is now the most popular IP entertainment on earth. And it is mostly on mobile.

Posted:A year ago

#15

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

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Popular Comment
Bruce, I hate to say this but I think you have a serious issue comprehending analogies.

Of course Airbus and Boeing are at each other's throat. They compete for the exact same market. Look back at the analogies I listed. Not only did I include the aviation segment of the transportation industry but I equated each segment in the similar vein to how console game and mobile games are segmented in the industry. They do not directly compete. Yet just about every article I read thee days and the words from many mobile supporters are espoused as though they are. We are not competitors, we are accomplices.

It pains me to see so many our industry's valuable business and creative assets being wholly blind to such an obvious concept. It's not an either/or industry. It's a collective of passionate people tapping into largely disparate segments of the market to spread our distributed escapism onto a populace in dire need of escape. And instead of achieving that goal together, too many of you wish to tear down every single aspect of the other side of the market you can.

It reminds me of family members bickering to each other who makes the most money ignoring the entire fact they are family to begin with. Instead of going into business with each other and doing far better combined, we're intent on thumbing our noses at each other over some ridiculous pride. Such a shame...such a waste.

Posted:A year ago

#16

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
@ Jim Webb

I have no issue comprehending that most people in the world consume most of their games on mobile. It dwarfs all other platforms.

Console now is just a small and rapidly diminishing niche.

Posted:A year ago

#17

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
Case in point.

I guess you just prefer the dysfunctional family direction the industry is moving in.

Posted:A year ago

#18

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
@Jim. Sorry mate, I usually find myself agreeing with you generally, but in this one you have it seriously wrong.

However you cut it, the money is going to mobile by orders of magnitude. It was a bit of a race for a while, but that race has long been run. That people consider mobile games inferior, time wasters, too simple, unrewarding, not gamer enough, awkward controls, blah, etc. is irrelevant. This is a business and the console sector has become not just a diminished part, but an utterly marginalised tiny niche. That sounds like inflammatory wording, but if you run the numbers you can see I'm being kind.

And the reason people like myself and Bruce are always banging on about it, is because "the games media" hasn't realised it yet. It's time for mobile to take its place and push these niche games back into the shadows where their feeble performance demands they go.

It's not like I have a dog in this race. We're a mobile developer, sure, but currently make bupkis like most devs. But that does allow us to break out of the elitism mindset and see things how they really are. For our future desires, we're not chasing ubisoft and blizzard, we're chasing king.com and supercell - where the proper success stories are.

Posted:A year ago

#19

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

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Popular Comment
But you're missing my point, Paul. Market share itself is irrelevant when you are looking at the industry as a whole function. While console gaming may now be relegated to a small sub-segment of the whole, it does still exist and is still very much a viable and in demand segment.

We don't do any of us any favors by instituting an arbitrary dichotomy when the reality is that we are still about video games. The medium they are delivered by should only be just that...a medium. We are losing the focus that got most of us involved in the industry in the first place when we stand divisive because our energies are placed in a foot race that frankly shouldn't even exist.

I'm not saying a developer with a certain medium focus should suddenly attempt to distribute in other means but that we need to acknowledge the validity and purpose that each segment delivers to the market. Rather than being condescending and smug about market potential, the superiority complex I noted earlier, we should be fascinated with the idea of expanding our IP's in unique and collaborative ways that generate a fanbase that never would have cared in the first place.

Look at what Ubisoft is doing with the mobile space as a complimentary function to their console IPs. Brilliant. That's what this industry needs more of. Embrace our industry segments as being something more than just cookie infested ickyness.

Posted:A year ago

#20

Carlos Bordeu Game Designer / Studio Co-Founder, ACE Team

67 91 1.4
"This is a business and the console sector has become not just a diminished part, but an utterly marginalised tiny niche. That sounds like inflammatory wording, but if you run the numbers you can see I'm being kind."

@Paul

What numbers are you basing the above comment on? I'd like to see those numbers but from the "regular" mobile game industry, not just the top 0.1% studios that hit it big. Please don't give me any examples using Rovio, king.com or Supercell... I'd like to see if the other 99% of the mobile gaming development scene is stable and healthy. Do 10/10 studios from a random pool of mobile developers do just fine, or are 8 of them unable to make any real money?

I don't work primarily for the console market (more for PC), but I have yet to see proof that moving our 15 man studio to full-on mobile game development would be the clear way to go, (or if we'd be out of business in a few months). I don't think it is such an obvious choice.

Posted:A year ago

#21

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
But Carlos, those three you listed are already bigger (or close) to the entire uk console industry at a tad under 2Bn, all by themselves. The other majority don't need to even figure. This is what I mean, it's not even a close run thing where pulling statistics out and using a favoured view matters.

To your other point, I hear you loud and clear - you are bigger than we are. We're making little more than decent wages, but firms like ours are not what's important to the wider industry. It's all about what the public are spending on, and that's mobile. Pretty much only mobile.

(I'm seriously not advocating becoming a mobile dev. It's harder to succeed in this market than in the console sector, and all that arrogant "go big or go home" rubbish in the ubisoft piece made me fester. They're taking very little risk and actually they really should pack up and go home because they've not gone big either. Supercell went big and could probably buy ubisoft with a months takings*.)

All developers have to find their favoured niche and try to make a living. I just want a refocus from "business announcements" to be about where the business is. For example "the charts" being the top grossing gaming chart, not a tiny sliver of sales in a minor sideshow hardware platform.

(edit: figures research method: pull out of ass)

Edited 2 times. Last edit by Paul Johnson on 19th July 2013 8:50pm

Posted:A year ago

#22

Carlos Bordeu Game Designer / Studio Co-Founder, ACE Team

67 91 1.4
Ok, then I guess we're just talking about different things. I don't really care if the mobile gaming business is a thousand times bigger than the console one if only a handful of companies are getting the majority of the profits.

I want to know where it is best for me to invest in the future, and having all the news proclaim that mobile has the greener pastures doesn't help me at all if no one is saying that 3 ginormous cows are eating all the grass there. Good for those cows, but I need to go where I have the best chances of getting my belly full, and that might not be mobile after all.

* BTW: As an indie studio from Chile I'm pretty sure many regular mobile developers are doing much better than us. I'm just interested to see where the industry moves forward for me, not for the big cows.

Posted:A year ago

#23

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
lol, like that's not true on console also. :) The three biggies aren't eating all the grass though, I only use just those as an example of how truly much bigger the inputs are. Our main game game isn't in the top 200 anymore but it's still paying our wages.

You can earn a living from mobile, but I think PC is probably safer if you already have the contacts and outlets you need - someone who returns your mails at Steam etc. We're switching now to doing both PC and mobile which can cast a wider net.

Posted:A year ago

#24

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
There are lots of very successful mobile publishers. You could join them if you have the skills:
GungHo
Supercell
Rovio
King.com
Kabam
Gameloft
Funzio
Gree
Storm8
NAVER
Mobage
TeamLava
Big Fish
Zynga
Social Quantum
COLOP
Mojang
Pocket Gems
Playtika
LOCOJOY
DeNA
Backflip
Glu
Natural Motion
Neon Play
Full Fat

There are plenty more.

Posted:A year ago

#25

Carlos Bordeu Game Designer / Studio Co-Founder, ACE Team

67 91 1.4
" Our main game game isn't in the top 200 anymore but it's still paying our wages."
@ Paul

That information you just gave there is more interesting to me than the content of this article. We're not hearing enough of the mobile devs that aren't the huge succesful ones, and that sort of info is relevant for people thinking about investing on mobile. Because the chances of making the next Angry Birds is pretty much zero.

Too many news about the studios making millions per day. I want to hear more about the rest.

Posted:A year ago

#26

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
I might make a blog post about that actually. I guess we are reasonably rare in being a mobile dev that's neither skint nor owning ferraris with days of the week for license plates!

Posted:A year ago

#27

Adam Campbell Associate Producer, Miniclip Ltd

1,182 971 0.8
I also think its impossible to ignore the installed base of these mini computers we have in our pockets. The number one camera, the number one music players, number one internet devices and maybe the number one gaming devices next.

Couldn't give a damn whether or not people like them for gaming or wish to compare consoles and mobiles directly, the market for gaming in this sector is huge and as it happens, the number of gamers will exceed the installed base of consoles if it hasn't already. It doesn't say anything about the current quality comparisons or profits, just the raw gaming numbers. Its very interesting and full of opportunity.

For most people the Xbox One/PS4 launch will be irrelevant. We're looking at devices with more use and a much wider appeal, in both developed and developing countries. There's more to the games industry than sitting in the living room with a console. We should embrace the new and growing types of experiences out there, not moan about it.

Posted:A year ago

#28

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
We should embrace the new and growing types of experiences out there, not moan about it.
Indeed we should, Adam. But we also shouldn't ignore or denounce the console market either. Both segments have their valid purposes for existence and appeal to different markets. And the industry as a whole will be far more prosperous, inviting, convergent, inclusive and harmonious if we embrace all means and methods for disseminating our creations.

We get enough negativity from the fans in their playground brand loyalty battles. Do we really need it among ourselves as well?

Posted:A year ago

#29

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
@Adam Campbell
"and maybe the number one gaming devices next."
I am amazed that people in the industry don't know what is going on. Phone/tablet gaming is very many times bigger than console gaming. Console really is just a hardcore niche that is in rapid decline. Whilst mobile is growing by 30% pa compound.
"For most people the Xbox One/PS4 launch will be irrelevant."
This is very true. The last two major console launches, the Vita and the Wii U, both bombed. Gaming for nearly everyone now happens on their phone and/or tablet. It will be difficult to make XBOne/PS4 relevant. Expensive boxes with expensive games that are stuck in one room. With antiquated controllers.

Posted:A year ago

#30

Keldon Alleyne Handheld Developer, Avasopht Ltd

449 423 0.9
This "tiny niche" is much larger that console gaming was 10 years ago. It is incredibly foolish to only compare the size of console gaming to the Wii hike.

I don't know one financial analyst or economist who would be able to ignore that fact without losing his job and credibility at the same time.

Regardless of what anyone says, that "niche" is more than happy with console gaming. And if niche is a derogatory then so are Rolexes, Ferrari's and other luxury segments small niches; but only the most clueless would ignore them. Worst of all is that the console market has had no problem with its size.

On a flip note, I think we should all pray for Bruce's amnesia as he can't seem to remember the console market size beyond 2008.
The number one camera, the number one music players, number one internet devices and maybe the number one gaming devices next.
So right. It's no surprise that the ubiquity of the mobile phone could outflank or at least outnumber dedicated devices that perform a similar function, but it is a small handheld device. It has performance limitations that a large device doesn't. Well, let's see.

Posted:A year ago

#31

Klaus Preisinger Freelance Writing

1,135 1,171 1.0
Popular Comment
@Bruce
TV did not kill movies, or movie theatres. Neither did TVs, VCRs, home cinemas, tablets, mobile phones, or George Lucas. Not for a lack of trying.

Do you watch video content on your smart phone? Probably yes. Do you watch Pacific Rim on your phone? Or Game of Thrones? Or anything cinematic for that matter?

Can you create a "the World according to Bruce" Youtube channel for me to enjoy on my phone? Probably yes.
Can you create a Pacific Rim? Even if, would you sell it exclusively on phones?

If you reduce the games culture to whose audience is biggest and where the most money for the least effort is to be made, then nobody would make great games. Everybody would be working in other industries with 9-5 jobs, weekends and better pay. Sure, AAA development has perverted the old idea of doing the game you want for the audience you want; no matter how small, as long as you break even. Sure, the PS3 and 360 did not allow for that type of development process. But there is a slight difference between a game and some hacked together exploit of the human psyche, made to profit off some soccer mom's iPhone addiction by putting a movie license, psychotropic sounds and gameplay shamelessly stolen from another successful game in a blender. (I am looking at you Gameloft) . Which is what most mobile game come down to. Those mobile games are the Jersey Shore of gaming. They make money in their cynical own way, with an audience you feel sorry for.

Meanwhile, the revolution is not an audience playing games on the phone, it is a renaissance of bedroom programmers releasing $10-$15 indy games which are suddenly the hottest contenders for game of the year. Not on iPhones I might add.


-----
tl:dr? Then you passed the mobile developer entry exam.

.

Posted:A year ago

#32

Adam Campbell Associate Producer, Miniclip Ltd

1,182 971 0.8
I am amazed that people in the industry don't know what is going on. Phone/tablet gaming is very many times bigger than console gaming. Console really is just a hardcore niche that is in rapid decline. Whilst mobile is growing by 30% pa compound.
I hope you're not suggesting that about me. Consoles are not the alternative to mobiles, there's also PC including AAA, casual and social. Throw in online and land based casino too, which is starting to move into mobile, though hasnt been overtaken yet...

I've simply stated that overall the may become number one but are not yet (comparing to all gaming areas), nowhere did I suggest consoles have a bigger installed base in my post. Unless you were somehow talking about other people ;)
So right. It's no surprise that the ubiquity of the mobile phone could outflank or at least outnumber dedicated devices that perform a similar function, but it is a small handheld device. It has performance limitations that a large device doesn't. Well, let's see
Like I've said to people before, the market size or ubiquitous nature doesn't attempt to speak of quality comparisons or performance, just the number of people carrying out a certain activity on that platform.

Three areas previously dominated by dedicated devices are now taken by phones (and tablets), gaming is on the hit list. AAA isn't the biggest target but smaller games, casual, flash games and casino are examples of gaming activities seeing faster growth on mobile or even a shift from one platform to another.

Posted:A year ago

#33

Andreia Quinta Creative & People Photographer, Studio52 London

224 590 2.6
I just want to commend Klaus comment. Pure gold.

Posted:A year ago

#34

Thomas Dolby Project Manager / Lead Programmer, Ai Solve

340 291 0.9
It still baffles me that there are people that refuse to believe that an entertainment sector can have more than one successful form of output for delivery. Let's take a look at music:
- Phones / Tablets
- Web streaming
- Radio
- Music players on Laptops/PC
- Live music
- Music TV
- Physical media

Let's look at movies:
- Phones / Tablets
- Web streaming
- Cinema
- TV / PayPerView
- Physical media
- Download to PC/Laptop/Consoles
- Even theatre to some degree

So those are the two other largest forms of entertainment in my mind, and they all have many ways for the consumer to consume their content. Physical media aside, I don't see their sectors continuously crying out about the death of all other forms of output and that everyone should bow down to the one true platform. Some are more popular than others, that much is fact, but it's also a fact that they manage to co-exist and satisfy various niches. So why must games be different, why can there only be one platform worthy of any time and investment?

Edited 2 times. Last edit by Thomas Dolby on 22nd July 2013 1:19pm

Posted:A year ago

#35

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
Thank you, Thomas. That's precisely what I've been trying to tell them for months.

Posted:A year ago

#36

Bruce Everiss Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
Variety theatre and music hall =dead
Ball room dancing = dead
Audio cassette =dead
Video cassette = dead
Film cameras = dead
Consumer video cameras = dead
CRT television = dead
Dreamcast, Neo Geo, NES, SNES, PS1, 3DO etc etc = all dead
Home computers = dead (PC is a business computer)
And so on. Humanity advances. New technology and entertainments replace old ones.

Edited 2 times. Last edit by Bruce Everiss on 22nd July 2013 5:37pm

Posted:A year ago

#37

Keldon Alleyne Handheld Developer, Avasopht Ltd

449 423 0.9
@Bruce: "Why so selective" (in the best Heath Ledger / Joker impression I can manage).

Ball room dancing was superseded.
Cassettes are totally obsolete.
Film cameras are totally obsolete for consumers, though have been used for a number of recent blockbusters, especially since some post production effects have not been reproduced in the same with with digital processing.
CRT televisions are totally obsolete.
NES, SNES and PS1 were successful but have been totally superseded and are also totally obsolete.
Dreamcast was a market failure, but its competitors succeeded. Neo Geo was a weak market contender and their consoles were weak value propositions.

But don't try to claim smartphone gaming supersedes or totally replaces the needs that console gaming provides because so far it simply does not, period - and that is reflected in every console hardware and software purchase. Don't attempt to mention falling sales, they have been on the market for several years so most of the relevant market already has one. The new purchases are most likely from (a) children who were to young to justify giving a PS3 or XBox 360 to as a present seven years ago or (b) owners of the other competing console of that generation who has decided to add a second device to play a few of its exclusives. There are also (c) additional gamers not typically interested in console games but are interested in those casual Just Dance type games.

Touchscreen only gaming has clear input limitations. There are absolutely no ifs or buts about that. It can allow for some different possibilities, but also loses out on many others. It's not just fps games either. The same way that the Wii mote, Eye toy or Kinect cannot cater for every gaming need is the same way touch screens cannot.

Nevertheless I'll await your ignoring of everything said and wait for your selective response that fails to acknowledge the truth.

Posted:A year ago

#38

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
Bruce, I just...I don't even. I envy your myopic, detached scope and focus. I really do. I just think you put so much focus into your points that it blinds you from reality a little. Perhaps context is the problem. You tend to look at transitions from something old to something new without any form of context and that leaves you with an invalid historical narrative that doesn't equate to the circumstances your shout from the rooftops as fact.

Posted:A year ago

#39

Adam Campbell Associate Producer, Miniclip Ltd

1,182 971 0.8
I think Thomas echoes the thoughts a lot of people have. The problem is there's always an antagonist that staunchly believes one of (though not limited to) the following;

"2 Billion mobiles are the only future"
"consoles are the only platforms with good games"
"AAA is dead"
"Social games are more important than console games"
"no such thing as a game that suits mobile"
"PC Gaming is dead"

Anyone with an element of impartiality or at least an open mind can see that the above statements are ridiculous, yet the antagonist always fights to deny that its possible for one or more of those forms of gaming to exist alongside their favorite.

What can you do yet constantly say that is its just that, ridiculous? I've seen countless people on this site and on all sorts of forums try to bend market statistics (including sales, installed base, attach ratio and revenues among other things), bend the laws of physics in arguing about technology catching up at extreme rates (usually on mobile) to replace consoles and PCs in no time and I've seen people bend written history to create bizarre conclusions about the future.

Well, at the end of the day they're still wrong, and we'll keep telling them they're wrong unless they prove otherwise...

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Adam Campbell on 22nd July 2013 11:00pm

Posted:A year ago

#40

Adam Campbell Associate Producer, Miniclip Ltd

1,182 971 0.8
Indeed we should, Adam. But we also shouldn't ignore or denounce the console market either. Both segments have their valid purposes for existence and appeal to different markets.
Ignoring the console market because of the growth of mobile simply isn't my view so...

I'm just one of the people also 'sick' of the denial that billions of smartphones could possibly be a major gaming market, and so what if a portion of those people will not care about Xbox or Playstation?

Even if we're talking about the non-gaming members of my family (for example) that are suddenly buying iPad 3s and iPad 4s, and end up playing Candy Crush and other cute, accessible games daily and addictively, they're some of those who simply don't care.

I wouldn't say we're taking anything away from consoles by saying that, it is simply a fact.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Adam Campbell on 22nd July 2013 11:11pm

Posted:A year ago

#41

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
Oh sure. The Candy Crush market is certainly not paying attention to the console market. But the inverse is also true. The console market isn't looking at the Candy Crush market. But these are also such obvious concepts that it's almost jarring when they are put out there as a news or used as ammunition in a debate.

Posted:A year ago

#42

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
As promised...
http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/PaulJohnson/20130723/196839/The_Chart_is_a_Lie_Dont_Believe_the_Hype.php

Jim, the main reason there is friction here is that those of us that understand the magnitude of mobiles takeover just want to see fair play. Whenever two opinions clash, the language starts to sharpen up and trenches get dug.

But the simple fact is, mobile is bigger than console. I don't expect any console fans to give two shits about that, but they don't have to because all the news is in front of them to read. Meanwhile, the main industry that everyone in the world is playing in, mobile, gets lip service at best, followed with the odd article about how some parent is looking to blame someone else for her lack of supervision of Johnny who is 8 and has access to a credit card. Etc.

Forget all the pearl clutching about F2P and go back to the by volume paid charts. Do you even know that the top selling mobile game right now, is called Contra Evolution? Why not, it's probably out-earning the last of us or at least will be by the end of the year. But we've been told six times already that the last of us #1 in its own sphere. This is bias, pure and simple. And those of us on the end of it can see it for what it is. And it's not nice.

At number 11 you have a game by an acquaintance of mine that's as original as it's possible to be. It's medical in nature and so great that the CDC invited him over to give a talk about it to all their boffins. See that in the news?

Etc.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Paul Johnson on 25th July 2013 1:23am

Posted:A year ago

#43

Jim Webb Executive Editor/Community Director, E-mpire Ltd. Co.

2,270 2,439 1.1
Paul, that sounds to me like displaced anger and resentment. As a Nintendo fan, I'm sure I don't need to tell you how much the media can infuriate someone with unfair headlines and overall coverage. But I certainly don't take out that frustration on a proxy. In fact, it looks to me like you already have the perfect outlet to express your frustrations...your own blog. From there, you can directly express the true nature and source of the problem rather than espousing venom indirectly.

When one figure of authority shows biased and subjective favoritism toward something else, you shouldn't place your resentment with the object of their affection but with that authority figure itself. Going back to my Nintendo fan reference, I don't lash out at Sony or MS due to the media's unfair negativity towards Nintendo but toward the media itself. Focusing my frustration on Sony and MS achieves nothing and baffles fans of those respective consoles.

As for why media currently has much more console coverage than mobile, I'm willing to guess it is because of the historical factor more than anything. Console coverage has been long established. It works in easily defined cycles and changes little between them. Mobile, as it is today, is still very new and more volatile (new models of hardware constantly releasing, hundreds or thousands of new games per day and there is no way to track sales). It will take a while for standards in coverage to become established. And much like when consoles were first being covered, it will likely take dedicated media coverage to obtain credibility just as consoles required a dedicated coverage that was not being given by the mainstream electronic entertainment media outlets of the time.

Posted:A year ago

#44

Thomas Dolby Project Manager / Lead Programmer, Ai Solve

340 291 0.9
@Paul & Jim
I actually agree with you both in one form or another. I don't believe that mobile is given the attention it deserves, I certainly wish I could keep more up to date with the mobile sector, but the media doesn't report it (other than the big established names every now and then), but as Jim says, I believe that's because the media can't control or keep up with it, and they don't know how to cover it through their current methods. The media likes things the way they are in the more established gaming forms, but shies away from reporting on the things they don't understand. It's something the media needs to put more focus on, because I think they can reap the rewards if they manage to find a way to get it right.

But at the same time I think lashing out at the thing at the centre of attention (i.e. consoles) is trying to hit the wrong target. Consoles are not irrelevant no matter what anyone says on this site, there is still a lot of money being made there, there is still a market there, and people are obviously still very interested in that area (major non-gaming news outlets wouldn't be covering console releases if it was such a small niche). As long as those things remain true, traditional gaming devices should still be in the media and should still be taken seriously. Even if traditional gaming is in a slow decline (which is debatable), it doesn't mean everyone should jump ship, if there is still a market that needs serving, and if there is still money to be made, there should be someone there to supply it.

Even as a PC gamer, I feel completely under served by the charts, they don't feature digital downloads. Digital downloads have been a big thing for years now but the media doesn't cover them (this mainly comes down to lack of numbers being openly available), and any waves made by the latest Steam sale aren't reflected in the charts at all (and it's widely known that this model is making a lot of money for all involved). It's not a problem to do with consoles or PCs, it's the archaic ways of reporting on them and the lack of transparency from the people that have access to the numbers.

Edited 4 times. Last edit by Thomas Dolby on 25th July 2013 2:36pm

Posted:A year ago

#45

Paul Johnson Managing Director / Lead code monkey, Rubicon Development

888 1,323 1.5
@Jim. It's not really anger as such, more a kind of sad ire. But it's not misplaced!

Posted:A year ago

#46

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