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Microsoft keeps quiet, but the numbers say change is needed

Microsoft keeps quiet, but the numbers say change is needed

Thu 18 Apr 2013 10:59pm GMT / 6:59pm EDT / 3:59pm PDT
BusinessHardwareFinancial

There was barely a hint of a new console in Microsoft's earnings call, but Xbox unit sales continue to decline

As far as you could tell from Microsoft's earnings call, there's no such thing as a new Xbox being planned. In fact, little attention was paid to the Entertainment & Devices Division, either by Microsoft executives or by analysts.

Microsoft execs had more important things to accomplish on this call than building excitement for a new console. They had to try and spin the results so that the fact of lower income on more revenue looked reasonable, and that Microsoft's prospects for the future are looking up, not down.

Look at the numbers: In the same quarter last year, Microsoft had $17.41 billion in revenue with $6.37 billion in income. This year, $20.49 billion in revenue with only $6.06 billion in income. Spending is up as Microsoft tries to transition away from a PC-dominated world to a future of cloud services (which includes Xbox Live), Surface tablets, and Windows smartphones.

Meanwhile, the Entertainment and Devices Division posted revenue of $2.53 billion, an increase of 56 percent (33 percent when adjusted for deferral of video game revenue in an accounting change) from the prior year period, which is pretty good considering the overall rough year for the console business. "Xbox sold 1.3 million consoles and maintained its share position in a soft console market," Microsoft said. "We continuously look for ways to improve Xbox Live for both our members and our partners. We saw transactional revenue grow roughly twice as fast as member growth this quarter." In other words, Microsoft was doing better at selling stuff on Xbox Live than it was at signing up new members. The company also noted that Xbox Live has grown some 18 percent from where it was last year.

Analysts focused their questions on the chances for Surface tablets to start selling better; Microsoft noted increasing distribution and hinted at new models in the future. Sales of Windows smartphones have improved, but the numbers are so small compared to iOS and Android that it's not significant yet - and it may never be.

What about next quarter, and the next fiscal year? Microsoft said only that it expects revenue to grow in the mid-teens next quarter, and that we would hear more about next year in the next few months. "Xbox continues to be at the center of our living room strategy," Microsoft said. "E3 is only a few months away, and we look forward to sharing more shortly."

"E3 is only a few months away, and we look forward to sharing more shortly"

Microsoft

Clearly Microsoft doesn't want to steal any thunder from its presentation at E3, or a possible pre-E3 unveiling that's been rumored. At some point, though, you have to wonder if Microsoft is really expecting its next console to have a major effect on the company as a whole. It may be huge for the console market, but can Microsoft use its next Xbox to sell more Surface tablets, Windows smartphones, or copies of Microsoft Office?

That seems unlikely. Microsoft's Windows 8 has been roundly criticized for attempting to bridge the gap between tablets and PCs, while satisfying neither market particularly well. Still, Microsoft was making progress on its vision of Windows everywhere, on PC, tablet and smartphone, with a common interface. Now that the next Xbox is rumored to be based on a PC architecture, and the Xbox Live interface is already resembling the new Windows interface, we are more likely to see common elements between all of Microsoft's hardware markets.

Certainly it makes sense if Microsoft can make money selling movies and music and games, it would do better to sell those for all possible platforms. Apple and Google have clearly shown the overall benefit of roping customers into an ecosystem. Once you've got someone hooked on one device (a phone or a tablet or a PC) it becomes much easier to convince them to buy other devices that work together seamlessly, and even share content. Microsoft can see the advantages of adding a console to that list of devices.

Unfortunately, so can Apple and Google. They have no standing in the console market as yet, but that can change quickly. Meanwhile, Microsoft is struggling to gain traction for its tablets and smartphones, while its greatest strengths (in PC and console) continue to erode. Ultimately the next Xbox, while it may never sell on the scale of a smartphone, could have an outsized impact if it can help boost Microsoft's tablet and smartphone business somehow.

That's unlikely to come about purely as a result of hardware innovation. Microsoft will need to keep up with the trends in business model innovation as well, and lower barriers to developers in order to get broader support. Sony has already made it clear that the PS4 will be much easier to develop for than the PS3, both in its technology and in the way Sony does business with developers. We need to find out if Microsoft can meet or beat Sony's bid for market dominance.

8 Comments

Dave Herod
Senior Programmer

520 741 1.4
I'm a bit confused.
In the same quarter last year, Microsoft had $17.41 billion in revenue with $6.37 billion in income. This year, $20.49 billion in revenue with only $6.06 billion in income.
Yet in the BBC news report:
Microsoft said it made $6bn in profit during the same period, a jump of more than 17% from a year ago.

Posted:A year ago

#1

Paul Shirley
Programmers

175 147 0.8
Popular Comment
"Microsoft was making progress on its vision of Windows everywhere, on PC, tablet and smartphone, with a common interface."

Microsofts problem is that it has indeed been imposing the common interface everywhere but few outside Microsoft believe that is progress. MS need to stop making business decisions driven by a policy of cross promoting their entire product line, regardless of whether that's appropriate or sensible. The public show little interest in the compromised products and developers seem even less interested.

The next XBox looks remarkably like a repackaged Win8 Metro-only PC, not a dedicated gaming monster. Hard to see as an exciting, must have purchase.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Paul Shirley on 19th April 2013 12:26pm

Posted:A year ago

#2

Paul Jace
Merchandiser

898 1,328 1.5
They're still not doing too bad over all. But like most people I'm tired of waiting round for info on the Next Box. M<icrosoft neds to give us something to hold us over for awhile.

Posted:A year ago

#3
They can't reverse engineer Windows to be as lightweight and flexible as iOS or Android. ARM's take over of mainstream computing is inevitable.

Posted:A year ago

#4

Micaiah Stevens
Owner & Freelance Game Designer

13 6 0.5
From two articles on Games Industry's front page RIGHT now.
Xbox live has hit 46 million users, and profits have jumped 56%.
Xbox was the top selling console is US in March with 261,000 units sold.
Would we like a new console, SURE, but this is really amazing growth for a console that is 7 years old.

Posted:A year ago

#5

Andrew Ihegbu
Studying Bsc Commercial Music

440 146 0.3
Bill, you should be ashamed of yourself for drinking so much Kool-Aid. ARM cannot take over mainstream computing and anyone who disagrees in the press is making clickbait.

The fastest multicore Snapdragon today is outrun by a 10 year old Celeron single-core. The only reason why iOS and Android seem fast is that they have been built to be lightweight from the start, take these practices to desktop and you have something that would leave ARM in the dust by an order of magnitude.

Further to the point, Metro was built just because of that fear. Metro can launch ARM compiled Metro apps and run them precisely the same, which is why WinRT exists in the first place. This means any app made for a WinPhone is available on the Tablet, Laptop and Nextbox, and providing that MS makes an effort to allow devs to bring Xbox Arcade games to PC or mobile in some respect, MS have the ability to tap a market several times the size of Playstation 4's and Nintendo's. This hopefully brings in devs with good games, whilst making sure that hardcore games appear on both mobile and console, and the same for casual Angry Birds style stuff.

Posted:A year ago

#6

Bruce Everiss
Marketing Consultant

1,692 594 0.4
@Andrew Ihegbu

But ARM have been beating Moore's law and also give far more performance for a given amount of electricity (FLOPS per watt).
ARM cores have jumped enormously in power with each iteration. For instance the ARM7 has a three stage pipeline, the Cortex-A8 has thirteen.
With ARMv8 they have introduced 64 bit architecture, which is a huge jump. AMD (and others) are developing server chips based on this. Here is why ARM will win in server architecture: http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/05/hp-arm-memcached-chip-paper/

The fact is that there are vastly more ARM chips now made every day than Intel chips. Intel are stranded on a burning platform (the PC) whilst ARM have a fundamentally superior architecture that is scaleable and lends itself to applications from car airbags to server farms.

Posted:A year ago

#7

Curt Sampson
Sofware Developer

596 360 0.6
Bruce: if you're going to argue that ARM will take over mainstream computing, you really need to use an example from mainstream computing, rather than the heavily specialized large-data-centre niche. The kind of processing you need on a machine that serves web pages and does nothing else, or runs memcached and nothing else, is not at all what the mainstream or a games console needs.

And, as ARM increases in power, it's going to run in to the same issues of power use that the Intel CPUs have. That 13-stage pipeline takes more energy to run than a 3-stage pipeline, and with that comes the need for things like better branch prediction logic, bringing in more circuitry and using more energy.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Curt Sampson on 1st June 2013 12:06am

Posted:A year ago

#8

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