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Finance

Duke Nukem sales estimates lowered on poor reviews

Wed 06 Jul 2011 8:59am GMT / 4:59am EDT / 1:59am PDT
FinancePublishing

But LA Noire's go up after it ships 4 million

Financial analyst firm Wedbush has reported that Duke Nukem Forever's poor critical reception has led it to reduce its Q1 sell-in estimate from 3 million units to 1.5 million.

The report cites the shooter's low Metacritic score of 49, expecting this to reduce its appeal to consumers and so damage sales. Wedbush had previously expected the Take-Two shooter to be one of 2011's biggest sellers.

The bad news for Take-Two was somewhat offset by a positive change in the estimates for detective game LA Noire, for which Wedbush has raised its sales estimates. Following news that Take-Two had shipped 4 million units, Wedbush now estimates a sell-in total of 4 million units, an increase from the previous 3.5 million.

The performance of both games has also affected estimates of Take-Two's revenue, which Wedbush now predicts to be $350 million, down from $375 million.

The report also interpreted recent extensions to developer Rockstar's employee contracts as a sign that Grand Theft Auto will be released at the end of 2012.

In June Take-Two share prices fell by more than 15 per cent after slow sales for LA Noire and poor scores for Duke Nukem Forever.

7 Comments

"Wedbush has raised its sales estimates. Following news that Take-Two had shipped 4 million units, Wedbush now estimates a sell-in total of 4 million units"

Is anyone really paying for analyses of this quality?

Horse bolts from stable, wedbush estimates closing the stable door would have prevented this.

Posted:2 years ago

#1
Probably somewhere someplace, some marketing suit has paid wedbush for anecdotal analysis...

Posted:2 years ago

#2

Tommy Thompson
Studying Artificial Intelligence (PhD)

110 0 0.0
Maybe I'm just cynical, but why did anyone believe Duke Nukem would sell that much? It's an old IP that has received very little attention over the last 10 years. The game was only of any real interest to people old enough to remember the legacy behind it. I assumed it would sell modestly since some people with even a passing interest in the character may pick it up. It wasn't going to set the charts on fire unless it actually lived up to the 13 years of speculation and hype, which it wouldn't. If TakeTwo can even make *some* money off of the game then that's a win in my book.

Still, I'm just happy to see it on shelves, notably mine.

Edited 1 times. Last edit by Tommy Thompson on 6th July 2011 12:07pm

Posted:2 years ago

#3

Andrew Goodchild
Studying development

1,199 317 0.3
Really for 2K, it seems DNF was a relatively cheap release for the profile it got. 3D realms sank about $20-25 mill into it, 2K sank a few million, and were willing to write it off as a loss. As it is I'm pretty sure 2K made a profit on it, and even if you count the money 3D realms wasted, $25 million is a lot for a game started in 1998, but hardly astronomical for a retail console release in 2011. As for slow sales of LA Noire, wasn't it fastest selling new IP in the UK ever, and the fastest selling game this year so far in the US? What constitutes fast sales?

Posted:2 years ago

#4

Graeme Jennings
Senior Producer

105 14 0.1
Financial analyst firm Wedbush has reported that Duke Nukem Forever's poor critical reception has led it to reduce its Q1 sell-in estimate from 3 million units to 1.5 million.

3million?? Pass the crackpipe please.

How do I get into this analyst field of work :) ?

Posted:2 years ago

#5

Alfonso Sexto
Lead Tester

716 498 0.7
What can I say... DNF reviews were the most missguided and out of place reviews I saw in a while (In general).

"The game looks dated", "the animations are poor", "it uses formulae like FPS platforming no longuer in use..." well... maybe it has to do with the fact that the game is more than 10 years old?.

Posted:2 years ago

#6

Andrew Goodchild
Studying development

1,199 317 0.3
@Alfonso, it's not really over 10 years old, it was started from scratch several times, I believe there was a complete restart in 2003. And regardless of when it was started it was released in 2011, at the same rough price point as Bulletstorm, Crysis 2, LA Noire and Portal 2. If you want to see it as a 10 year old game, then a ten year old game would be sold somwhere between 1 and 10, not 35-40. Now some reviewers probably love the callback to a different era, but you can't blame a reviewer for judging a game based on when it was released, and what the other options a potential customer has at that time, rather than when it should have originally come out. If a reviewer said, "I really found this game a pain to play, I didn't like it, but I would have loved it 10 years ago, so I'll give it 5 stars anyway" we'd be questioning his mental capacity.

Posted:2 years ago

#7

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